In 1972, a group of scientists predicted that human civilization would collapse by 2100 if there were no changes in the ways we run our businesses, governments, and daily lives. There were no changes.
GarryRogers Nature Conservation
Four decades after publication, Limit to Growth’s forecasts have been vindicated by new Australian research. Expect the early stages of global collapse to start appearing soon.by Graham Turner and Cathy Alexander, The Guardian, September 2, 2014
Critics called the 1972 book Limits to Growth, which predicted our civilisation would probably collapse some time this century, a doomsday fantasy. Back in 2002, self-styled environmental expert Bjorn Lomborg consigned it to the “dustbin of history.”
It doesn’t belong there. Research from the University of Melbourne has found the book’s forecasts are accurate, 40 years on. If we continue to track in line with the book’s scenario, expect the early stages of global collapse to start appearing soon.
A think tank called the Club of Rome commissioned the Limits to Growth. Researchers working out…
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Reply to question: Growth defined as additions minus subtractions (e.g., for population the additions are births, the subtractions are deaths). The net domestic product (NDP) equals the gross domestic product (GDP) minus depreciation on a country’s capital goods. Net domestic product accounts for capital that has been consumed over the year in the form of housing, vehicle, or machinery deterioration. The data are available from agencies of the UN, US, & others. Modelling procedures are discussed in the book.