Hothouse 2090: Category 6 Hurricane A Grey Swansong For Tampa | robertscribbler

GR.–“Here’s what you get when a climate expert adds a little drama to scientific projections of what we can expect:  Sea-level rise, massive storms, heat, and failing civilization.  Be sure to read the comments that follow Scribbler’s story.”

Tampa. 2090. Late September.

“The stiff wind running off the Gulf of Mexico felt like a blast furnace. Ocean surface temperatures near 100 degrees Fahrenheit; air temperatures of 113 F, high humidity, and a smell like rotten eggs added to the overall insufferability. Unpleasant was a better word from a better time. Mere unpleasantness had long since fallen away before the new deadly edge that Nature had adopted.

“Tampa’s streets were packed with vehicles but featured only the rare transient foot and bike traffic. Just 15 minutes’ exposure to the brutal four p.m. heat and humidity could swiftly result in heat stroke as a body’s natural cooling systems were overwhelmed by conditions no human physiology could for long endure. The city had long since grown accustomed to the warnings. Anyone wanting to stay healthy remained indoors, huddling close to the blessed vents blasting machine-cooled, filtered air.

“In the heat-scorched streets, elevated many times over to keep above the rising seas, a few diehards still roamed. They sported the latest in cooling accessories — thermal-bleeding fashions were all the rage and had been for at least three decades now. So too were the thin-film sulfur filtration masks, totem-like in their branding and individually styled in patterns of iridescent colors. These were the stylized provisional responses to the gigantic dead zones that regularly painted the Gulf’s waters purple-black with stinking, toxic-gas-spewing bacteria. But today, the waters were sickly green. The stink was merely unbearable and only somewhat unhealthy, thanks to the large and powerful storm now pushing in the bluer off-shore waters and flushing out some of the seaside dead zone.

RCP 8.5(Under RCP 8.5 warming scenarios, the Earth is transformed into a hotter, more deadly place, capable of supporting storms of never-before-seen intensity. Image source: The European Environmental Agency.)”–RobertScribbler.com. Hothouse 2090: Category 6 Hurricane A Grey Swansong For Tampa | robertscribbler

Climate Change Has Claimed Its First Mammal Extinction – Scientific American Blog Network

The Bramble Cay melomys was wiped out by sea level rise, according to a new study

By John R. Platt on June 15, 2016.–“Climate change has claimed its first confirmed mammal extinction. The tiny Bramble Cay melomys (also known as the Bramble Cay mosaic-tailed rat, Melomys rubicola) has been declared extinct by the government of Queensland, Australia after an exhaustive search failed to turn up any evidence of its continued existence.

“The Bramble Cay melomys lived in just a single habitat, a small reef island at the northern tip of the Great Barrier Reef. The sandy cay—which only measures 340 meters by 150 meters—has been repeatedly buffeted by storm surges from extreme weather events over the past decade, wiping out about 97 percent of its vegetation. High tides now cover the majority of the entire island. With nothing to eat and few places left to escape the ocean, the melomys appears to have now disappeared.”  Continue reading:  Climate Change Has Claimed Its First Mammal Extinction – Scientific American Blog Network

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Three Certainties: Death, Taxes, and a Warming Planet | Climate Denial Crock of the Week

GR:  Lost habitat and wildlife are not even included in the costs.

Take what you want and pay for it, says God. – Spanish Proverb

Peter Sinclair.–As the damages from a changing climate mount up in areas from Texas to Miami Beach, citizens of Planet Earth will be faced with greater and greater damages from coastal flooding, extreme storms, and other signals of a warming planet.While a favorite climate denier talking point is to rail against sensible taxes on fossil fuels, its an illusion to think we are not already paying the costs – in damage to infrastructure, homes, agriculture, health, and economic activity. A sober view of what we face in the real world is unfashionable in the Trumpiverse, but some communities will go ahead and face it anyway.  Continue reading:  Three Certainties: Death, Taxes, and a Warming Planet | Climate Denial Crock of the Week

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Australian researchers call for more coastal monitoring in the face of expected climate change impacts

Bob Berwyn–June storms highlight impacts of rising seas, shifting storm patterns.

Just after the Australian government announced massive cuts to the country’s science agency, researchers are warning that there’s more of a need than ever to track climate change impacts.

A series of recent storms that lashed Australia’s east coast are reminder that rising sea level presents a growing threat to coastal communities, according scientists with the University of New South Wales.

“The damage we’ve seen is a harbinger of what’s to come,” said Ian Turner, director of the Water Research Laboratory at the University of New South Wales. “Climate change is not only raising the oceans and threatening foreshores, but making our coastlines much more vulnerable to storm damage. What are king high tides today will be the norm within decades.”  Continue.– Australian researchers call for more coastal monitoring in the face of expected climate change impacts | Summit County Citizens Voice

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Bay Area Voters Approve Tax to Fix Marshes As Seas Rise | Climate Central

GR:  Individuals, not the corporations responsible for the problem are paying this tax.  Hey, Republicans, why not reverse fossil-fuel subsidies and let the fossil-fuel industry’s past profits help pay to clean up polluted air, water, and land?

John Upton:  Voters in the San Francisco Bay Area approved an unprecedented tax Tuesday to help fund an ambitious vision for restoring lost marshlands, handing electoral victory to shorebirds, crabs and advocates of a muddy strategy for adapting to rising seas.

Measure AA is projected to raise an estimated $25 million a year for 20 years. As of Wednesday morning, 69 percent of voters in the nine Bay Area counties supported it, with only a small number of votes left to be counted. The $12 annual tax proposed for each parcel of property owned in the Bay Area needed two thirds of votes to pass.  Read more:  Bay Area Voters Approve Tax to Fix Marshes As Seas Rise | Climate Central

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Tottering Totten and the Coming Multi-Meter Sea Level Rise

GR:  Readers should think about what this means: “408 Parts per million CO2. 490 parts per million CO2e. This is the amount of heat-trapping CO2 and total CO2 equivalent for all heat-trapping gasses now in the Earth’s atmosphere. Two measures representing numerous grave potential consequences.

We’re Locking in 120-190 Feet of Sea Level Rise Long Term

Looking at the first number — 408 parts per million CO2 — we find that the last time global levels of this potent heat-trapping gas were so high was during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum of 15-17 million years ago. During this time, the Greenland Ice Sheet did not exist. East Antarctic glacial ice was similarly scarce. And the towering glaciers of West Antarctica were greatly reduced. Overall, global sea levels were 120 to 190 feet higher than they are today. Meanwhile, atmospheric temperatures were between 3 and 5 degrees Celsius hotter than those experienced during the late 19th Century.”

robertscribbler

A new scientific study has found that the Totten Glacier is fundamentally unstable and could significantly contribute to a possible multi-meter sea level rise this Century under mid-range and worst case warming scenarios.

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408 Parts per million CO2. 490 parts per million CO2e. This is the amount of heat-trapping CO2 and total CO2 equivalent for all heat-trapping gasses now in the Earth’s atmosphere. Two measures representing numerous grave potential consequences.

We’re Locking in 120-190 Feet of Sea Level Rise Long Term

Looking at the first number — 408 parts per million CO2 — we find that the last time global levels of this potent heat-trapping gas were so high was during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum of 15-17 million years ago. During this time, the Greenland Ice Sheet did not exist. East Antarctic glacial ice was similarly scarce. And the towering glaciers of West Antarctica were greatly reduced…

View original post 1,608 more words

Sea-level rise ‘could last twice as long as human history’

“The long-term view sends the chilling message of what the real risks and consequences are of the fossil fuel era,” said Prof Thomas Stocker, at the University of Bern, Switzerland and also part of the research team. “It will commit us to massive adaptation efforts so that for many, dislocation and migration becomes the only option.”

“The report, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, notes most research looks at the impacts of global warming by 2100 and so misses one of the biggest consequences for civilisation – the long-term melting of polar ice caps and sea-level rise.

“This is because the great ice sheets take thousand of years to react fully to higher temperatures. The researchers say this long-term view raises moral questions about the kind of environment being passed down to future generations.

“The research shows that even with climate change limited to 2C by tough emissions cuts, sea level would rise by 25 metres over the next 2,000 years or so and remain there for at least 10,000 years – twice as long as human history. If today’s burning of coal, oil and gas is not curbed, the sea would rise by 50m, completely changing the map of the world.”  www.theguardian.com

GR:  This report focuses on sea level.  It reaffirms previous realizations by climate scientists that even after we stop adding CO2 to the atmosphere and limit global temperature rise to 2C, sea level will keep rising for thousands of years.  That’s not all, extreme storms, droughts, fires, and disease outbreaks, and the extinction of wildlife and ecosystems will also continue.  As frightening as this is, many have acknowledged that 2C is an optimistic value.  Human nature (avarice) and the inertia of our grow-or-die civilization will take us past 2C.  There is no doubt now that we have condemned our descendants to a stark future of uncertain survival. Thus we belatedly learn that the American Dream was a Pandora’s Box nightmare the pursuit of which has doomed human civilization to regret lasting for a thousand generations or more.

We may see civilization collapse before the seas rise by 150 feet.  A growing number of scientists foresee that our growing population and shrinking resources will soon join climate change as major destructors of our current economic, social, and cultural systems, our civilization (http://wp.me/p26kDO-j2l).

Share lines:

T:  Even if global temperature rise is limited to 2C, the oceans will rise 75 feet

FB:  Like a kettle on the stove, current CO2 levels guarantee that global warming, sea-level rise, and wildlife extinctions will continue for thousands of years.

Climate: Extreme Greenland Ice Sheet melting episodes change runoff regime

“When warm temperatures in 2012 caused an extreme melting episode across much of the Greenland Ice Sheet, it may have fundamentally altered the way the near-surface snow layers absorb water, according to a new study published in Nature Climate Change.
“The melting resulted in the formation of a thick layer of ice atop the previously porous surface. Subsequently, meltwater ran off the surface and to the ocean, with potential impacts on sea level, according to York University Professor William Colgan.
“Because the models scientists use to project Greenland’s sea level rise contribution do not presently take firn cap-off into consideration, it means that Greenland’s projected sea level rise due to meltwater runoff is likely higher than previously predicted. Getting this newly observed physical process into these models is an important next step for the team.”  from: summitcountyvoice.com

GR:  This helps explain the rapid formation of the cold pool of water in the North Atlantic (https://garryrogers.com/2015/03/24/whats-going-on-in-the-north-atlantic/).

 

Humankind’s Last Days Below 400 PPM CO2?

“By mid November of 2015, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels as measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory had again risen above 400 parts per million. Over the past two weeks, these levels maintained. And even though we may see a few days during which CO2 levels drop below that key threshold during late November and, perhaps, early December, those days could well be the last.”  From: robertscribbler.com

GR:  What does 400 parts per million mean for the Earth?  From the article:  “Atmospheric CO2 levels remaining at 400 parts per million for any significant period will push the Earth climate to warm by between 2 and 3 degrees Celsius. It will push for sea levels to rise by at least 75 feet. In other words, a world at 400 parts per million is a world radically changed. A world that human beings have never seen before. And as a cautionary note, the total forcing from all greenhouse gasses currently emitted by humans is now in the range of 485 parts per million of CO2 equivalent. A level well beyond the current 400 parts per million threshold and one that likely equates to around 4 degrees Celsius worth of long term warming.”

Northeast Greenland Begins Ominous Collapse — Giant Zachariae Isstrom Most Recent to Destabilize

“North, south, east, and west. At all points of the compass, the entire outer edge of the Greenland Ice Sheet is flooding into the oceans with increasing velocity. For NASA it’s the absolute worst kind of OMG realization. For the world’s warming oceans and airs are clearly worsening an already visible Greenland melt. And a new report just out of the University of California (Irvine) today shows that a massive glacier containing enough water to raise seas by more than 1.6 feet (0.5 meters) is the most recent of a growing number of these ice giants to initiate a swift rush into the ocean.

“Called Zachariæ Isstrøm, this enormous glacier dominates a large section of the northeast-facing shores of Greenland. The glacier, hundreds of feet tall and plunging hundreds more feet below the ocean surface, like many in our world, now faces the combined threat of warming airs and waters. A double insult that, according to researchers, over the past 15 years has led to first destabilization and then a rapid seaward acceleration.”  Continue reading at: robertscribbler.com

GR:  The fresh water from melting ice causes several problems.  One is the increase in ocean acidity and consequent damage to marine ecosystems.