Managing Ecosystems with Worst-Case Climate Change

The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) reports that up to 1 million species are already at risk of extinction because of human activities[i]. With an average surface temperature increasing by 3°C or more, this number could be higher. Local communities, including towns and farms, must take steps to adapt and preserve Earth’s biodiversity.

Coastal ecosystems are critical concerns as the large populations on coasts are affected by rising seas along with all the other problems associated with rising temperatures. More effort needs to be focused on these important ecosystems[ii].

Research using climate classification systems predicts how environments and ecosystems will shift as global warming occurs[iii]. Planners can use this information to understand how their local environments will change and how the strategies listed below should be applied.

Here are four key strategies to implement at the local level to help ecosystems and communities survive in a changing climate. These approaches represent a shift from traditional conservation methods[iv] to more interventionist techniques in the face of severe climate change. Ecosystem complexity fills these strategies with uncertainty, making it essential to employ adaptive management, the continual assessment and revision as we apply the strategies.

Assisted Migration Programs

As climate zones shift, many species cannot migrate to suitable habitats. Assisted migration involves physically moving species to areas where they can survive. While controversial, this approach may be the only option for saving many species from extinction[v].

For communities, this could mean partnering with nearby regions to create wildlife corridors that allow species to move as conditions change. We might also consider moving certain plant or animal species that are struggling in the current climate to more suitable nearby areas.

For example, if our area is home to cold-adapted species like certain types of conifers or alpine flowers, we can assist their migration to higher elevations or more northern latitudes. This could involve collecting seeds or seedlings and planting them in new locations that are expected to have suitable conditions in the future.

However, assisted migration is difficult. Introducing species to new areas can have unintended consequences for existing ecosystems[vi]. Before implementing any assisted migration program, we should:

Conduct thorough ecological assessments of both the source and recipient ecosystems.
Start with small-scale trials and monitor the results.
Collaborate with ecologists and other experts to minimize risks.
Engage with the local community to build understanding and support for these efforts.

Seed Banks and Genetic Repositories

To safeguard genetic diversity, we must expand the network of seed banks and genetic repositories. While large-scale initiatives like the Svalbard Global Seed Vault are crucial, local efforts can also play a significant role[vii].

Communities could establish a local seed bank to preserve the genetic diversity of native plants and locally adapted crop varieties. This would involve:

Identifying key species to preserve, including both wild plants and agricultural crops.
Collecting and storing seeds from a wide range of individual plants to capture genetic diversity.
Regularly testing stored seeds for viability and regenerating them as needed.
Collaborating with other communities and larger seed bank initiatives to share resources and knowledge.

For species that can’t be preserved as seeds, we should explore partnerships with universities or research institutions to store genetic material through cryopreservation. This could be important for preserving the genetics of local livestock breeds or wildlife species.

These local genetic repositories serve multiple purposes to:

Act as an insurance policy against local extinctions.
Preserve genetic diversity that may be crucial for developing climate-resilient crops and ecosystems in the future.
Support restoration efforts if species are lost from local environments.

Climate-Controlled Refugia

In a 5°C warmer world, some species may not survive without direct human intervention. Climate-controlled refugia—high-tech arks—may be necessary to preserve critical ecosystems and species assemblages[viii].

While large-scale refugia may be beyond the resources of most local communities, there are reasonable alternatives:

Greenhouse complexes: Climate-controlled greenhouses can preserve vulnerable local plant species or communities. These could range from simple structures for hardier species to more sophisticated setups for delicate plants.
Aquatic refugia: For communities near water bodies, controlled aquatic environments can protect vulnerable fish or amphibian species. This could involve temperature-controlled tanks or even modified sections of natural water bodies.
Microclimate management: We can create and manage microclimates that mimic the conditions needed by certain species. This might involve creating shade structures, managing water flow, or using other techniques to create cooler, moister areas within warming landscapes.

While these local refugia may not preserve entire ecosystems, they can serve as genetic reservoirs and educational tools. They can help maintain populations of key species until larger-scale solutions are implemented or until climate conditions improve.

Novel Ecosystems Approach

As ecosystems transform under climate pressure, management paradigms must change. The concept of “novel ecosystems” acknowledges that many future ecosystems will have no historical analogues, composed of new combinations of species under new environmental conditions[ix].

Adopting a novel ecosystems approach in communities might involve:

Accepting change: Rather than trying to maintain historical conditions that may no longer be viable, focus should shift to managing changing ecosystems for resilience and essential services.
Adaptive management: Monitor local ecosystems and adjust management strategies based on how they are changing and functioning.
Focusing on ecosystem functions: Instead of trying to preserve specific species’ compositions, priority should be on maintaining key ecosystem functions like water filtration, soil health, or pollination.
Managing invasive species: Intervention is required to prevent domination by disruptive invasive species, while accepting that some non-native species may play important roles in new ecosystems.
Promoting diversity: We can encourage a diverse mix of species that can thrive in changing conditions and provide important ecosystem services.

For example, if local forests are struggling with warming temperatures, we might introduce more heat-tolerant tree species that can still support local wildlife and maintain essential ecosystem functions like carbon sequestration and erosion control.

In agricultural areas, we might shift to more diverse, agroecological farming systems that are more resilient to changing conditions. This could involve integrating trees into croplands (agroforestry), using diverse crop rotations, and incorporating livestock in ways that mimic natural ecosystems.

Implementing These Strategies

Implementation will require coordinated efforts. Here are some steps to take:

Education and outreach: Organize workshops and information sessions to help community members understand the challenges and the strategies we’re proposing.
Partnerships: Collaborate with local universities, conservation organizations, and neighboring communities to share resources and expertise.
Citizen science: Engage community members in monitoring local ecosystems and species. This can provide valuable data while also fostering a sense of stewardship.
Policy changes: Work with local government to implement policies that support these adaptive strategies, such as land-use regulations that create wildlife corridors or incentives for climate-adaptive agricultural practices.
Funding: Explore grants, crowd-funding, and other creative financing options to support these initiatives.

Ethical Considerations

Implementing these strategies requires consideration of difficult ethical questions. Assisted migration and managed relocation involve intervening in natural processes in unprecedented ways. Creating climate refugia means choosing which species to prioritize for preservation. And the novel ecosystems approach requires us to make challenging decisions about which ecosystem functions and species to prioritize.

We must approach these decisions with humility, transparency, and a commitment to ongoing dialogue within communities and with outside experts. While these interventions carry risks, the risk of loss because of inaction in the face of severe climate change is even greater.

Ecosystems Conclusion

These strategies represent a significant departure from traditional approaches. They are resource intensive and not without risks. However, faced with catastrophic climate change, they may be the best hope for preserving the biodiversity that supports both ecosystem health and human wellbeing[x].

By implementing these strategies at the local level, communities can play a crucial role in the broader effort to adapt to climate change and preserve Earth’s biodiversity. We must act decisively, but also thoughtfully and ethically, always remaining open to new information and willing to adjust approaches.