World population to hit 11bn in 2100 – with 70% chance of continuous rise

The 1970’s efforts to deal with population were abandoned. Now, population growth, like global warming, cannot be stopped in time to save Earth’s species and ecosystems.

Exposing the Big Game

New study overturns 20 years of consensus on peak projection of 9bn and gradual decline

by Damian Carrington

World population increase most in Africa: Crowded Oshodi Market in Lagos, Nigeria.
A crowded Oshodi market in Lagos, Nigeria – the country’s population is expected to soar from 200m today to 900m by 2100. Photograph: James Marshall/Corbis

The world’s population is now odds-on to swell ever-higher for the rest of the century, posing grave challenges for food supplies, healthcare and social cohesion. A ground-breaking analysis released on Thursday shows there is a 70% chance that the number of people on the planet will rise continuously from 7bn today to 11bn in 2100.

The work overturns 20 years of consensus that global population, and the stresses it brings, will peak by 2050 at about 9bn people. “The previous projections said this problem was going to go away so it took the focus…

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