Category Archives: Human Impact

Limiting Global Warming To Two Degrees Celsius Is Not Enough

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The biggest threat to life on Earth is the massive damage to the biosphere by humans. This damage comes from our heavy resource use, waste production, and severe global warming.

Human actions are pushing natural systems past their limits (Rogers 2025). This causes mass extinctions and loss of vital life support systems. The endless drive for economic growth is unsustainable. “A great change in our stewardship of the Earth is required. . .” (Ripple et al. 2017, Rogers 2026b). James Lovelock warned that overheating the planet is the single greatest danger to our world. He stated, “I cannot say too strongly that the greatest threat to life on Earth is overheating” (Lovelock 2019, 57).

Most scientists doubt we can limit the global average temperature rise to 2o C. But even if we do, our damage to the biosphere will still be catastrophic. Even if we stop greenhouse emissions, it will take centuries for climate to stabilize at the new warmer level (Rogers 2026a). Moreover, if the human population remains in the billions, the damage we cause will keep growing. Here are some of the human wrought environmental changes that have already occurred or will begin to occur over the next 10-20 years.

  1. The ongoing loss of plant and animal species is breaking the living webs that support productivity and stability of the natural world (Richardson et al. 2023).
  2. Clearing forests and livestock grazing are destroying  wild habitats, contributing to extinction, and ruining the healthy soils needed to support natural ecosystems and agriculture (Steffen et al. 2015).
  3. Human impacts on ecosystem networks break the Earth’s cognitive web that facilitates high biosphere diversity and productivity. This limits resources available to the technosphere and human cultural and social systems (Frank, Grinspoon, and Walker 2022, Milanese 2025). By destroying the microbiome with chemical fertilizers, deforestation, overgrazing, and more, we break the natural connections that create the environment that supports life (Gajbhiye 2025, Handte-Reinecker and Sardeshpande 2025).
  4. Flooding the environment with nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers creates huge dead zones in our ponds, lakes, and oceans that kill aquatic life (Carpenter and Bennett 2011).
  5. Draining our rivers and underground aquifers to irrigate crops and run our cities removes the fresh water required by natural ecosystems and will empty the people from many large cities (Gleeson et al. 2020).
  6. Rising seas will increase salinity of lowlands, destroy coastal ecosystems, and displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide (Hansen et al. 2013).
  7. The increase of extreme weather events severely disrupts natural ecosystems, reduces the yields of crucial agricultural crops (Malhi et al. 2020), and damages critical energy and transport infrastructure (Forzieri et al., 2018).
  8. Warming seas combine with acidification from fertilizer runoff and CO2 absorption from the air to cause tropical coral reefs to die (Doney et al. 2009). Abundance of marine life is falling (Zahid et al. 2025) in a catastrophic loss of food for coastal communities.
  9. Industry, transportation, deforestation, farming, and desertification release soot and dust particles into the air, blocking sunlight and disrupting the rain patterns needed by natural ecosystems and human farms (Ramanathan et al. 2001).
  10. Toxic chemicals and plastics released into the environment poison the bodies of living things and damages the health of the entire global ecosystem (Persson et al. 2022).
  11. Air pollution causes breaks in the ozone layer and increases harmful solar radiation that causes cancer in humans and damages plant genetics (Solomon 2019).
  12. Irreversible tipping points have been or will be passed (Lenton et al. 2008). Here is a list of some of them:
  13. The Greenland Ice Sheet will slowly and permanently melt raising global sea levels by many meters (Boers and Rypdal 2021).
  14. The Amazon rainforest will die out.
  15. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet will fall apart and slide into the ocean causing massive coastal flooding for centuries (DeConto and Pollard 2016).
  16. Warm, acidic ocean waters will bleach and kill tropical coral reefs around the world, resulting in a devastating loss of diversity and productivity of marine sea life (Dixon et al. 2022).
  17. Rapid melting of northern permafrost will release huge amounts of trapped carbon creating even more global heating (Turetsky et al. 2020).
  18. The Barents Sea will rapidly lose its winter sea ice disrupting northern ecosystems and weather patterns (Onarheim et al. 2018).
  19. Mountain glaciers will melt away shrinking essential drinking water supplies for lowland ecosystems and human communities (Hugonnet et al. 2021).
  20. The ocean currents in the Labrador Sea will break down and cause major weather shifts across the North Atlantic region (Armstrong McKay et al. 2022).

References

Armstrong McKay, David I., Arie Staal, Jesse F. Abrams, Ricarda Winkelmann, Boris Sakschewski, Sina Loriani, Ingo Fetzer, Sarah E. Cornell, Johan Rockström, and Timothy M. Lenton. 2022. Exceeding 1.5 C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. Science 377 (6611): eabn7950. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950

Boers, Niklas, and Martin Rypdal. 2021. Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118 (21): e2024192118. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2024192118

Carpenter, Stephen R., and Elena M. Bennett. 2011. Reconsideration of the planetary boundary for phosphorus. Environmental Research Letters 6 (1): 014009. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/1/014009

DeConto, Robert M., and David Pollard. 2016. Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise. Nature 531 (7596): 591-597. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17145

Dixon, Adele M., Piers M. Forster, Scott F. Heron, Anne M. K. Stoner, and Maria Beger. 2022. Future loss of local-scale thermal refugia in coral reef ecosystems. PLOS Climate 1 (2): e0000004. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000004

Doney, Scott C., Victoria J. Fabry, Richard A. Feely, and Joan A. Kleypas. 2009. Ocean acidification: The other CO2 problem. Annual Review of Marine Science 1: 169-192. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.marine.010908.163834

Forzieri, G., Bianchi, A., Silva, F. B. e., et al. (2018). Escalating impacts of climate extremes on critical infrastructures in Europe. Global Environmental Change, 48, 97-107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.11.007

Frank, Adam, David Grinspoon, and Sara Walker. 2022. Intelligence as a planetary scale process. International Journal of Astrobiology 21 (2): 47-61. https://doi.org/10.1017/S147355042100029X

Gajbhiye, Sanjana. 2025. Microbial vault: The race to save Earth’s disappearing microbes. Earth.com. https://www.earth.com/news/microbial-vault-the-race-to-save-earths-disappearing-microbes/

Gleeson, Tom, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Samuel C. Zipper, Miina Porkka, Fernando Jaramillo, Dieter Gerten, Ingo Fetzer, et al. 2020. The water planetary boundary: Interrogation and revision. One Earth 2 (3): 223-234. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.02.009

Handte-Reinecker, Anna, and Mallika Sardeshpande. 2025. Microbiomes as Modulators of Human and Planetary Health: A Relational and Cross-Scale Perspective. Global Change Biology 31 (4): e70152. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70152

Hansen, J., Kharecha, P., Sato, M., et al. (2013). Assessing Dangerous Climate Change: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature. PLoS ONE, 8, e81648. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0081648

Hugonnet, Romain, Romain McNabb, Etienne Berthier, Brian H. Menounos, Christopher Nuth, Andreas Kaab, and Daniel Farinotti. 2021. Accelerated global glacier mass loss in the early twenty-first century. Nature 592 (7856): 726-731. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03436-z

Lenton, T. M., Held, H., Kriegler, E., et al. (2008). Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105, 1786-1793. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705414105

Lovelock, James. 2019. Novacene: The Coming Age of Hyperintelligence. London: Allen Lane.

Malhi, Y., Franklin, J., Seddon, N., et al. (2020). Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 375, 20190104. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0104

Milanese, Steven. 2025. Planetary Intelligence: Earth as Information Processor. Rev. Steven Milanese Blog. https://stevenmilanese.com/blog/planetary-intelligence-earth-as-information-processor

Onarheim, Ingrid H., Tor Eldevik, Lars H. Smedsrud, and Julienne C. Stroeve. 2018. Seasonal and regional manifestation of Arctic sea ice loss. Journal of Climate 31 (12): 4917-4932. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0427.1

Rogers, Garry. 2025. Silent Earth. Agua Fria Open Space Alliance, Coldwater Press, Humboldt, AZ. 551 p.

Rogers, Garry. 2026a. Biosphere Collapse. Agua Fria Open Space Alliance, Coldwater Press, Humboldt, AZ. 259 p.

Rogers, Garry. 2026b. Manifesto of the Initiation. Agua Fria Open Space Alliance, Coldwater Press, Humboldt, AZ. 28 p.

Persson, Linn, Bethanie M. Carney Almroth, Christopher D. Collins, Sarah Cornell, Cynthia A. de Wit, Miriam L. Diamond, Peter Fantke, et al. 2022. Outside the safe operating space of the planetary boundary for novel entities. Environmental Science & Technology 56 (3): 1510-1521. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.1c04158

Ramanathan, Veerabhadran, Paul J. Crutzen, Jeffrey T. Kiehl, and Daniel Rosenfeld. 2001. Aerosols, climate, and the hydrological cycle. Science 294 (5549): 2119-2124. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1064034

Richardson, Katherine, Will Steffen, Wolfgang Lucht, Jørgen Bendtsen, Sarah E. Cornell, Jonathan F. Donges, Ingo Fetzer, et al. 2023. Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries. Science Advances 9 (37): eadh2458. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458

Ripple, William J., Christopher Wolf, Thomas M. Newsome, Mauro Galetti, Mohammed Alamgir, Eileen Crist, Mahmoud I. Mahmoud, and William F. Laurance. 2017: 1026. World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice. BioScience 67 (12): 1026-1028. https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/bix125

Solomon, Susan. 2019. The discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole. Nature 575 (7781): 46-47. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-019-02837-5

Steffen, Will, Katherine Richardson, Johan Rockström, Sarah E. Cornell, Ingo Fetzer, Elena M. Bennett, Reinette Biggs, et al. 2015. Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet. Science 347 (6223): 1259855. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1259855

Turetsky, Merritt R., Benjamin W. Abbott, Katey M. Walter Anthony, John C. Schuur, Paul T. Mann, Christopher C. Treat, Susan M. Natali, et al. 2020. Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw. Nature Geoscience 13 (2): 138-143. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0526-0

Zahid, F., Gajdzik, L., Korsmeyer, K. E., et al. (2025). Asynchronous effects of heat stress on growth rates of massive corals and damselfish in the Red Sea. PLOS ONE, 20, e0316247. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0316247

The Biosphere Integrity Metric (BIM)

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How healthy is our planet’s life support system? Shockingly, we lack a clear, real-time indicator. Current measures often tell us about extinctions after they happen. We need a “check engine” light for the biosphere. Our proposed Biosphere Integrity Metric (BIM) aims to be just that. It measures the flow of energy through life’s web and how human activities disrupt it. As a first step, we are developing a Satellite-Derived Primary Production Pressure Index (SPPPI) using global satellite data. This proxy metric will provide an urgently needed early warning of human pressure on the base of the food web. While not the full picture, it is a vital start. Read on to learn how this metric works and why developing the full BIM, integrating ground truth data, is our ultimate goal.

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Intersection Of Human Environmental Solutions and Impacts

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The fundamental question of whether humanity’s environmental solutions will overtake and halt its environmental destruction in time to preserve human civilization is the subject of intense scientific debate. An analysis of peer-reviewed research on climate change and its effects on human civilization suggests that while positive developments in technology and policy may prevent the absolute worst-case warming scenarios, they are unlikely to be deployed fast enough to avoid irreversible damage to key global ecosystems. The “intersection” will occur, but after some critical tipping points have been crossed.

I approached this issue in: “Adapting to Worst-Case Climate Change” and “Silent Earth, Adaptations for Life in a Devastated biosphere.” This blog post is a more balanced review of optimism due to positive developments and pessimism due to negative impacts. Last week I added Kindle versions of my books. Enrolled in Amazon’s Free Book promotion, they are free starting today with “Adapting. . . .”

The Acceleration of Solutions: A Techno-Economic Revolution

The case for optimism rests on the exponential growth of clean technologies, driven by powerful economic feedback loops.

  • Economic Tipping Points: The most significant positive trend is that renewable energy sources are now, in many parts of the world, the cheapest form of new electricity generation available. This has created a powerful economic momentum for decarbonization that is less dependent on political will. A study by Way et al. (2022) in the journal Joule found that a rapid transition to clean energy is likely to result in trillions of dollars in net savings globally compared to a fossil-fuel-based system.
  • Exponential Growth & S-Curves: The deployment of key technologies like solar, wind, and batteries is not linear but follows an exponential adoption “S-curve”. BloombergNEF (2023) data shows that solar and wind now account for most new power-generating capacity added globally each year. Similarly, global EV sales have doubled every two years, a trend that, if sustained, could lead to a near-total transition away from internal combustion engines for new car sales by the early 2030s.
  • Policy as an Accelerator: While political will is fickle, major policy actions can create long-term industrial momentum. The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the E.U.’s Green Deal are not just climate policies, but massive industrial strategies designed to onshore clean energy manufacturing and secure a competitive advantage. These initiatives will accelerate decarbonization pathways in the world’s largest economies, though this will be retarded by the U. S. counter moves in 2025.

The Acceleration of Impacts: The Unyielding Physics of the Earth System

The case for pessimism is grounded in the physical realities of the Earth system, which possesses immense inertia and potential for non-linear dynamics.

  • Climate System Inertia and “Locked-In” Warming: The central challenge is the inertia of the climate system. Even if global emissions were to cease today, the planet would continue to warm because of past emissions and the thermal inertia of the oceans. This has been referred to as “warming in the pipeline” (Hansen et al. 2023). A significant amount of future sea-level rise and ecosystem injury is already “locked in,” regardless of our current actions.
  • Irreversible Tipping Points: The greatest risk is that this locked-in warming will push critical Earth systems past irreversible tipping points. A landmark 2022 study in Science by Armstrong McKay et al. found that several key tipping points, including the collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets and the abrupt thaw of permafrost, could be triggered even between 1.5°C and 2°C of warming—thresholds we are on track to cross. The recent die-off of vast areas of coral reefs serves as a stark example of a major ecosystem already crossing this threshold.
  • Cascading Risks and Synchronous Failures: These tipping points are not independent. The collapse of one system can increase the risk of another failing, creating a “tipping cascade” (Kemp et al. 2022). For example, losing Arctic sea ice reduces albedo and accelerates regional warming, which hastens the thaw of permafrost. Recent research highlights the growing risk of “synchronous failure,” where climate-related shocks trigger simultaneous crises in multiple interconnected systems, including global food supply chains and financial markets. In their exhaustive study of tipping points, Vasilis Dakos and colleagues concluded that the vast amount of remote sensing and other Earth systems data are bringing us closer to the ability to anticipate tipping points. At present, “Early warnings can tell us that “something” important may be about to happen, but they do not tell us what precisely that “something” may be and when exactly it will happen” (. . . , Dakos et al. 2024).

The Verdict: An Intersection After Irreparable Damage

When comparing these two accelerating trends, the scientific literature points to a deeply unsettling conclusion. The positive socio-economic trends of the clean energy transition are powerful, but they are unlikely to move quickly enough to prevent the biophysical trendlines of climate impact from crossing critical, irreversible thresholds. The most likely outcome is a future where humanity successfully reduces the impacts of its farms and cities and decarbonizes its energy and transportation systems, but only after locking in the collapse of several major ecosystems. We will prevent the 4-5°C “runaway greenhouse” scenario, but we will not prevent the loss of all coral reefs and mountain glaciers, loss of some major ice sheets, and significant, permanent loss of significant portions of the biosphere. The “intersection” will not be a moment of salvation, but a point at which we can adapt to a world that has been irreparably damaged. If humanity’s effort to survive is sufficient, civilization will survive, but in a suppressed state that will persist while the earth cools and cleans itself and Earth’s biosphere heals.

Bibliography

Alber, J., et al. 2021. The Apocalyptic Dimensions of Climate Change between the Disciplines. https://doi.org/10.1515/9783110730203-001.

Armstrong McKay, D. I., et al. (2022). “Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points.” Science, 377(6611), eabn7950.

BloombergNEF. (2023). New Energy Outlook 2023. Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Claes, D. H., & Pineda, L. G. (2023). “The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the new logic of climate and energy policy.” Energy Strategy Reviews, 50, 101258.

Dakos, V. et al. (2024). Tipping point detection and early warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems. Earth System Dynamics 15: 1117-1135.

Hansen, J., et al. (2023). “Global warming in the pipeline.” Oxford Open Climate Change, 3(1), kgad008.

Homer-Dixon, T., et al. (2015). “Synchronous failure: The emerging causal architecture of global crisis.” Ecology and Society, 20(3).

Hughes, T. P., et al. (2018). “Global warming transforms coral reef assemblages.” Nature, 556(7702), 492-496.

IEA. (2023). World Energy Outlook 2023. International Energy Agency.

IPCC. (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.

Kemp, L., et al. (2022). “Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(34), e2108146119.

Rogers, G. 2024. Adapting to Worst-Case Climate Change. Coldwater Press, Humboldt, AZ. 99 p.

Rogers, G. 2025. Silent Earth: Adaptations for Life in a Devastated Biosphere. Coldwater Press, Humboldt, AZ. 452 p.

Seba, T. (2020). Rethinking Humanity: Five Foundational Sector Disruptions, the Lifecycle of Civilizations, and the Coming Age of Freedom. RethinkX. https://www.rethinkx.com/publications/rethinkinghumanity2020.en [Accessed 06/09/25]

Steel, D., et al. 2022. Climate change and the threat to civilization. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(42), e2210525119.

Way, R., et al. (2022). “Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition.” Joule, 6(9), 1967-1971.

Silent Earth Review

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“Silent Earth” has received a five-star “must read🏆” review on Reedsy. Blending scientific depth and practical foresight, this book is both a wake-up call and a guide for navigating environmental collapse.

Synopsis

Silent Earth is a technical reference for civil engineers, land-use and urban planners, and city administrators. It covers a broad range of topics and should serve as a springboard for specialists wishing to learn more about adapting to climate change and biosphere decline.

As the Earth’s living systems deteriorate at an unprecedented rate, human societies face the urgent challenge of adapting to an increasingly unstable environment. Physical Geographer Garry Rogers offers a clear-eyed examination of our options, arguing that while complete restoration of the biosphere is no longer feasible, strategic adaptation remains possible. Drawing on extensive research, Rogers outlines practical approaches for communities to maintain essential functions as ecosystem services decline. While large-scale adaptation efforts face significant barriers, this groundbreaking work shows how planners and administrators can implement effective strategies to enhance resilience in a transforming world. Essential reading for navigating our environmental future. Ideal for policymakers, scholars, environmentalists, and engaged citizens, Silent Earth challenges readers to envision a future where, even amidst biosphere decline, adaptation and innovation can pave the way for survival.

Garry Rogers’ Silent Earth: Adaptations for Life in a Devastated Biosphere explores the escalating degradation of Earth’s biosphere, offering strategies for human adaptation. It points to the realistic inevitability of this need to adjust, as humanity is facing the consequences of irreversible damage already done. Rogers goes beyond the simple dialogue of climate change, expanding and examining the interconnected impact of the entire biosphere, from current impacts such loss of biodiversity to coral reef bleaching.

In Section IV, Rogers draws upon research to emphasize that as soon as 2030 we are on the brink, and that we urgently need to act not only to prevent further destruction, but also to prepare for survival:

The cumulative and synergistic effects of human impacts are pushing ecosystems closer to tipping points. Feedback loops and shifting ecosystem boundaries are accelerating environmental change, while these effects interact in complex ways, amplifying their individual impacts. As we approach 2030, addressing these interconnected challenges will require an integrated approach to conservation and climate action to mitigate the far-reaching impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem stability.

The strength of Silent Earth lies in Section V, which presents a blueprint for adaptation. Rogers proposes various strategies from water management to cultural and governance reforms. His emphasis on grassroots action and local resilience is both pragmatic and empowering, especially given his acknowledgment of the political and societal inertia that is likely to hinder adaptation on a wider scale.

Silent Earth is thoroughly researched, intellectually stimulating, and well-cited. Rogers excels in synthesizing vast amounts of ecological, social, and technological data into a cohesive narrative.

Silent Earth is a valuable resource for those interested in interdisciplinary approaches to global challenges. It’s an important and thought-provoking read for anyone seeking to understand and address the complex realities of ecological decline.

Reviewed by: Brittney Banning

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GR:  We already know that we must leave the oil and gas in the ground if our civilization is to survive global warming.  Toxicity threats to humans and wildlife gives us another reason.

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Air pollution now major contributor to stroke, global study finds | Science | The Guardian

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Science editor.–Scientists say finding is alarming, and shows that harm caused by air pollution to the lungs, heart and brain has been underestimated

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GR:  This is the best discussion of the cause of coral death in Australia’s Great Barrier Reef I’ve seen–it’s people.

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Florida harbor dredging threatens corals | Summit County Citizens Voice

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Bob Berwyn:

Activists plan lawsuit to win more environmental protection

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