Habitat loss threatens all our futures, world leaders warned

GR: I suppose that we all know what’s causing habitat loss. The human population has grown without limits and like bacteria in a petri dish, we are using up the Earth’s resources. The outcome was predicted long ago. Couple those predictions with the unexpected rapid intensification of climate change and you can see why our ultra rich citizens are hoping to find water on Mars and other planets. They hope to soon be saying, “So long and thanks for all the fish.” Of course, the rest of us can’t wait for the day that they all fly away in an Elon Musk version of the Golgafrinchan Ark Fleet Ship B.

“As a UN conference convenes to work out a new deal for protecting the planet’s biodiversity, the focus falls on the nations that are not attending.

“Amid the worst loss of life on Earth since the demise of the dinosaurs, the agenda at the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh could hardly be more important, but the spirit of international collaboration appears to be as much at risk of extinction as the world’s endangered wildlife. The United States has never signed up and Brazil is among a growing group of countries where new nationalist leaders are shifting away from global cooperation.

“The two-week meeting of the CBD is its first in two years. It has always been the neglected sibling of its twin, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The two organisations were conceived amid great hope at the Rio Earth summit in 1992 but while the energy transition has attracted heads of state interested in billion-dollar renewable projects, the effort to save the natural world has been left to weak environment ministries, conservation NGOs and underfunded scientists” –Jonathan Watts. Habitat loss threatens all our futures, world leaders warned | World news | The Guardian

CO2 Emissions Must be Cut Now

It’s Time to Cut CO2 Emissions

Yesterday at my house we received 2.25″ of rain (with hail) in less than an hour. In arid regions, that’s a lot. The gutters clogged with hail, spilled over, and contributed to ponding in the yard that came within 1/4 inch of flowing over the patio door sills. I have a flood wall planned, and hope there’s still time to get it built before another intense storm comes along.

We can expect increasing storm size and intensity because of the amount of CO2 we have already released into the atmosphere. If we could limit emissions and subsequent temperature rise to 1.5 degrees celsius, the storms would continue to grow, but away from the coasts, little flood walls and rooftop solar panels would probably let most of us survive. However, limiting the storms by limiting global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees celsius is impossible now. We might still limit the increase to 2 degrees, but we have to act fast.

The graph below shows the best scientific estimates of the cumulative effect of delays. If emissions begin to fall now, we can stay below 2 degrees of rise if we reach zero by 2040. If emissions do not begin falling until 2025, we must reach zero by 2033 to stay below 2 degrees. Eight years? Having had a strong taste of the coming catastrophe by then, we might try. But the effort itself would be so costly, we probably wouldn’t make it. Dropping to zero in 21 years if we begin now will be incredibly difficult. It will require a global switch to wartime economies dedicated to building renewable energy and making emission cuts. Emissions are still rising as we approach 2020, and reaching zero in 21 years seems unlikely.

All we can count on for sure is that nature will force human emissions to begin falling in about 20 years due to massive loss of life as heatwaves and wildfires increase, and as farms, water delivery, power delivery, and transportation fail. That’s when positive feedbacks, including the ice-free arctic, melting permafrost, soil erosion, and other sources of CO2 will begin growing without our contribution. At that point, our species could begin spiraling down toward extinction.

Christiana Figueres and colleagues published the graph below last year. I blogged about it last December. You can find a link to the original article there.

To keep all this positive, glass half full and so on, I will close by saying that the world’s scientists could be wrong about climate and we will all win the lottery next week.

Methane Releases May Be Accelerating

Methane Release (Washington Post photo by Jonathan Newton

Greenhouse Gas, Methane, Release May be Accelerating

Methane (CH4) released from warming permafrost is one of the scariest of the possible climate-change feedbacks. Goes like this: Arctic warms > permafrost melts > methane escapes > this increases solar heat trapping in Earth’s atmosphere > this accelerates Arctic warming > permafrost melting accelerates > methane release accelerates > solar heat trapping accelerates > . . . . As Earth warms, its radiant heat will gradually overcome the barrier imposed by greenhouse gasses. Eventually, the atmosphere will find a new balance between incoming solar energy and outgoing heat. Reaching the new balance will take hundreds, probably thousands, of years. Earth will probably be uninhabitable by large-bodied organisms long before that.

Don’t you wish your politicians and fellow citizens would realize that this issue is way more important than whether or not some college student waved his penis in a girl’s face? Of course, that crap needs to stop, but let’s just stop it and let it assume the minor position among today’s concern that it merits, and turn our attention to scarier events.

News of methane releases is accelerating. If researchers begin finding lots of lakes like this one, we could have passed the point at which we can slow global warming.

Can We Pull It Out? The Greatest Conspiracy in Human History

Story Idea for Climate Change Conspiracy

Inside a secluded retreat with a long driveway filled with limousines and luxury sedans a speaker standing beside a row of seated panelists asks,”Are there any questions?” A man responds, “Are you absolutely certain we can pull it out of the air?”

It is spring of the year 1969. Richard Nixon has taken office, Neil Armstrong will soon become the first human to stand on the moon, and Woodstock planning is underway. The panel of scientists and engineers has just completed addressing a secret meeting of executives from the nation’s largest corporations in the energy, finance, insurance, and manufacturing industries. The subject is CO2–production, impact, and removal.

“Yes we can. Removing CO2 from the atmosphere will be the greatest engineering feat ever accomplished. Bigger than the pyramids, bigger even than going to the moon. And it will be the most expensive and most profitable in human history. Your packets contain the texts of the presentations along with relevant breakdowns of costs and profits. The data on removal technology and cost follows the text of Mr. _____’s presentation.”

 

Another executive stands, “How can we convince people to pay for something we have done for profit? Why would anyone be willing to do that?”

“If you look at the projections accompanying Dr. _______’s presentation, you will see that the climatic effects of the CO2 will cause such massive disruptions and losses of life and property that fear and even panic occur worldwide. People will accept anyone with an effective solution as their savior. It is essential, however that we have control over lawmakers so that we control public funding. We must block any upstart independent companies or public government projects. Work on this must begin immediately. Review the details of the required social and political manipulations given with Reverend ______’s presentation.”

“More questions? No? Then let’s take a break and enjoy one another’s company. Please discuss your questions with our panel and take some time to study the material in your packets. For security reasons, none of that material can leave this place.”