Tag Archives: Climate Change

Global Cooling–A Mini Ice Age?

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 –Source: Posted on July 12, 2015 by

“There was a press release from the National Astronomy Meeting – which I go to every couple of years – suggesting that the Sun is will return to Maunder Minimum-like conditions during the 2030s. This has been picked up by some as suggesting that we’re heading for a mini-ice-age.

SolarIrradianceReconstructedSince1610“This kind of idea has been addressed before. The basic problem is illustrated in the figure to the right. If the Sun returns to Maunder minimum-like conditions, then that might imply a reduction in Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) of maybe as much as 3Wm-2. However, to determine the corresponding change in forcing requires considering the geometry of the Earth (approximately spherical) and the albedo (about 0.3). A reduction of TSI of 3Wm-2 would produce a change in solar forcing of about 0.5Wm-2.

\Delta F_{\rm solar} = \dfrac{(1 - {\rm A}){\rm \Delta TSI}}{4}.

“Anthropogenic forcings have, however, probably increased by more than 2Wm-2 since 1750, are currently rising at around 0.4Wm-2/decade, and will probably (unless we start reducing our emissions) continue to rise at at least this rate. A reduction in solar forcing of 0.5Wm-2 by the mid-2030s will therefore only offset about a decade’s worth of increasing anthropogenic forcings. Globally, therefore, the effect will likely be small, as illustrated by the second-to-last figure in this article.

“I should, however, be a little bit careful, as it is possible that such a change in solar forcing could have quite significant regional impacts. This paper suggests that

For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

“So, a return to Maunder minimum-like conditions could have quite large regional impacts, but globally is likely to have a relatively small effect, and would probably only delay global warming by about 10 years” — Posted by: And Then There’s Physics.

Posted on July 12, 2015 by

Drought, beetles preying on weakened California forests | The Sacramento Bee

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Frank Cody wasn’t surprised to learn that at least 12 million trees across California recently have died from a lethal mix of bugs and long-term drought. Business is booming for the South Lake Tahoe tree service business owner.  Sourced through Scoop.it from: www.sacbee.com

GR:  Instead of addressing the source of the problem, the USDA Forest Service and the timber companies that control its decisions will see this as an opportunity to gain access to protected forest areas.  They need to thin the forest and clear areas to create barriers to insect spread, right? Wrong. The USDA needs to focus on stopping livestock grazing and timber harvest in the forests, and it needs to do what it can to reduce CO2 emissions. The agency has various means to block fossil fuel mining and encourage renewable energy,

Global Warming Is Wiping Out the Bees

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Bumblebees, a linchpin of the global food supply, are vanishing across huge swaths of North America and Europe as a result of climate change, a new study says.  Sourced through Scoop.it from: www.usnews.com

GR:  Earth’s lands, like its oceans, can’t take anymore. Though many species are better adapted to warming than bumblebees, none will escape human impacts unchanged.

It’s Not Just Sao Paulo — Much of South America and Caribbean Swelters Under Extreme Drought

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The map shows that no country in South America is unaffected.

When the Great Ice Sheets Start Going Down — Approaching the Age of “Storms”

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We have ignored the warnings and relentlessly burned gasoline, oil, and coal; now we must prepare for Act II, the Age of Storms.  This story is in the Climate News, but its importance justifies a repeat.

From the conclusion:

“As for phase 3 climate change — that’s a transition to a runaway hothouse and a stratified/Canfield Ocean state. And we really don’t want to see that either. But before we get there, it’s a transition to an age of glacial melt and tremendously potent storms.”

Climate change: Religious leaders pushing ambitious post-2020 emissions cuts #Auspol

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This year’s El Nino will add force to the argument. Australia could yet be a leader in addressing our global trouble.

April 2015 ranks as 4th-warmest on record for Earth

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Take note of the cold spot in the North Atlantic. From the movie The Day After Tomorrow: Terry Rapson: “We found something extraordinary… extraordinary and disturbing, that is. You recall what you said in New Delhi about how polar melting might disrupt the North Atlantic Current?”
Jack Hall: “Yes.”
Terry Rapson: “Well… I think it’s happening.”

What Can We Do About Climate Change?

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This interview, the fourth in a series on political topics, discusses philosophical issues that underlie recent debates about climate change. My interviewee is Dale Jamieson, a professor of environmental studies and philosophy at New York University. He is the author of “Reason in a Dark Time: Why the Struggle to Stop Climate Change Failed — and What It Means for Our Future.” — Gary Gutting

Gary Gutting.: It’s clear that global warming is an established fact, and that a good amount of it is due to human activities. But to what extent can we reliably predict how warming will affect our lives if we do little or nothing about it, or predict the effects of various policies designed to lessen its effects? In other words, does climate science have sufficient predictive reliability to be a good guide to forming public policy?

Dale Jamieson: The difference in scale between what climate models deliver and what managers and planners need has long been a major problem. Our current models make predictions primarily expressed in terms of very abstract constructs such as “mean surface temperature” that are not very useful to decision makers. Work is advancing on regional climate models that would be more useful, but there are multiple ways of trying to build these models and they remain controversial.  Source: opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com

From the article:  “The “war on coal” is nothing more than a set of policies that require producers and consumers of coal to bear some of the costs that they now evade.”

Time to Switch to Solar Power

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Solar Energy Can Replace Fossil Fuels Very Quickly

SunCollecting and storing solar power is not a new concept.  In the 1960’s, more than 50,000 solar water heaters were sold in Florida alone.  When I bought this house 18 years ago, it had a 20-year old heated-water solar power collection and storage system. Unfortunately, heated-water systems are not too efficient and they need lots of maintenance.

My main objection to solar power collection projects has been the loss of habitat shaded by the collectors and bulldozed for transmission routes.  In the video below, Elon Musk points out that the total land area needed to collect enough power to replace fossil fuel in the U.S. is quite small.  Moreover, most of it can be from rooftops requiring no further land loss. Okay, if that’s true, I’m sold.

With improved photovoltaic cells and batteries, solar power becomes a practical replacement for fossil fuel generation. This zeros out CO2 production and let’s us turn our attention to other critical issues:  population, invasive species, toxic pollution (e.g., pesticides and plastic) and land lost to construction, farming, and harvest (logging and grazing).  The video is Musk’s simple presentation of how the sun’s power can replace fossil fuels now.

Here’s the link to reserve your Powerwall.  The site includes the information needed to add up your power needs.  I expect that Solar City and other installers will soon add estimated costs for power inversion, solar panels, and wiring to their websites.