Climate change pushing floods, cyclones to new extremes, with worse to come

Posted on April 1, 2017 by GarryRogers

GR: We know that global warming increases the chances for severe storms. This article provides explanations and some details on what to expect.

“With Australia experiencing the aftermath of Cyclone Debbie and record-breaking rains and severe flooding in south-east Queensland and along the north coast of New South Wales, here’s a look at how global warming has, and will, push floods and cyclones to new extremes.

Flooding extremes

“Warm air can be more humid than cold air, that is, it can hold more water vapour in absolute terms. And atmospheric water vapour content increases seven per cent for each 1-degree-Celsius increase in global average temperature, establishing the conditions for more intense rainfall events.

“Flash floods are likely to sweep across the Australian landscape with increasing intensity, particularly in urban or residential areas. Peak rainfall is predicted to soar with rising surface temperatures as Australia experiences ever greater extremes of heat.

“The frequency of major flood events (defined as events which caused extensive flooding within 50 kilometres of the coast, or inundation that extended 20 kilometres along the coast) along Australia’s eastern seaboard has doubled in last 150 years, with climate change one of the possible factors, senior Bureau of Meteorology researchers say.

“Record-breaking heavy rainfall and a clear upward trend in downpours over the last 30 years fits in with global temperature rise caused by greenhouse gases. Statistical analysis of rainfall data from 1901 to 2010 around the globe, shows that from 1980 to 2010 there were 12% more of these intense events than would be expected in a climate without global warming. Wet regions generally saw a bigger increase in deluges and drier regions a smaller one. In southeast Asia, the observed increase in record-breaking rainfall events is as high as 56%.

“Attribution studies show how the risk of a particular event may have changed due to the human influence on climate. Some attribution results surveyed by the World Meteorological Organisation include:

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration determined that human-caused climate change increased chances of the fatal and record rains in Louisiana by at least 40% percent and could have nearly doubled the odds of such a storm.
A scientific analysis of devastating 2014 floods in the United Kingdom, which cost an estimated $646 million in insurance losses, found that human-caused climate change has increased the chance of the extreme rain event by 43%.
In May-June 2016, portions of northeast France received six full weeks of rain in 24-hours. A formal attribution study released June 9, 2016, found that such extreme rains are at least 40 percent—and as much as 90 percent—more likely in some areas of France.

Cyclone extremes

“Cyclones, in part, draw their energy from the temperature of the ocean’s surface waters, so a warming climate and ocean puts more energy into storms, including cyclones, loading them with more rainfall, and stronger winds pushing more of a storm surge.” –Climate Code Red (Continue: Climate Code Red: Climate change pushing floods, cyclones to new extremes, with worse to come.)

Hothouse Mass Casualties Strike Egypt, Heatwave Hospitalizes Thousands in Japan

Posted on August 11, 2015 by GarryRogers

#Global Warming–#Weather Extremes

Back in May, official temperatures soared to 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit) as humidity levels spiked in Cairo, Egypt. The early high heat and humidity sparked anxiety among residents worrying over the coming summer. Public complaints about official temperatures being lower than actual measures were widespread among a populace vulnerable to heat exposure in a notoriously hot region of the world suffering the ongoing impacts of human-forced warming. The below video captures some of the sentiment of a few months ago, when concern that record global temperatures in the range of 1 degree Celsius above 1880s averages might result in harm to Egypt’s populace was widespread and growing.” Sourced through Scoop.it from: robertscribbler.com GR: This summer’s deaths are sad harbingers of escalating weather extremes as the planet warms and ocean evaporation increases. Urban heat islands intensify the extremes. This bad for humans, pets, and factory-farmed animals, but for now, wild animals outside cities will not suffer as much. Of course, other human impacts are killing wild animals and plants. Increased transpiration during heat waves will hurry our innocent fellow creatures along the road to extinction.

How This Year’s El Niño Compares to the Past

Posted on July 23, 2015 by GarryRogers

“It was the winter of 1997-1998 when the granddaddy of El Niños—the one by which all other El Niños are judged—vaulted the climate term to household name status. It had such a noticeable impact on U.S. weather that it appeared everywhere from news coverage of mudslides in Southern California to Chris Farley’s legendary sketch on “Saturday Night Live.” Basically, it was the “polar vortex” of the late ‘90s.

“January and February 1998 were the wettest and warmest first two months to a year for the contiguous U.S. in the 104-year record at that time, according to NOAA. The position of the jet stream meant that some northern states saw temperatures up to 15 degrees above normal and both the Southeast and Southern California were awash in a series of storms.” –Sourced through Scoop.it from: www.scientificamerican.com

GR: This year’s El Nino is going to be as strong or stronger than 97-98. Strong El Ninos can produce strong weather events. But when, where, and even if are all uncertain.

Global Warming, Snow Cover, and Weather Extremes

Posted on February 14, 2015 by GarryRogers

GR: The video’s explanation of the changes producing more extreme weather is excellent.

Climate Denial Crock of the Week

Above, I chatted with Jennifer Francis of Rutgers back in the spring of 2013, and the topic turned briefly to snowcover in a warming world, and some interesting paradoxes.

To kick this off, here are some graphs from the Rutgers Snow Lab. Can you spot the global warming effects?

Listen to Francis, above, read this excerpt from Kevin Trenberth’s recent piece on this topic – and look again.

Kevin Trenberth in The Conversation:

There is a saying that it can be “too cold to snow”! Of course, this is a myth but it has a basis in fact because the atmosphere gets freeze dried when it is very cold. That’s because the amount of moisture the atmosphere can hold depends very strongly on temperature. Under cold conditions, the snow is likely to consist of very small crystals and sometimes is very light and fluffy and like “diamond dust”.

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Buffalo’s 2014 November Snowstorm

Posted on November 21, 2014 by GarryRogers

GR: As extreme weather events become more common, they will become more extreme, guaranteeing more exciting weather news cycles than ever before.

“Earlier this week something rather interesting and disturbing happened to the Jet Stream.

“In the extreme northwest, a large heat pool over Alaska and the Beaufort Sea in the Arctic Ocean kept temperatures in the range of 10 to 36 degrees Fahrenheit above average. To the south, a powerful super typhoon, gorged on Pacific Ocean waters ranging from 1-2 C hotter than normal, raced into the extratropical region of the Central and Northern Pacific. And to the north and east, the cold core that normally resides over the North Pole began slipping south.

“As the supertyphoon’s remnants hit the warm weakness in the Jet Stream near Alaska, it bombed out into a monster extra-tropical low. This kicked warm air even further north, causing a whiplash in the Jet and driving the cold air core south over Canada.

“Cold air rocketed down over the relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes. These waters, having soaked up the heat of yet another hotter than average American summer, squeezed an epic amount of moisture and storm feeding energy out into the air. Over the past two days, the result was as kind of thundersnow storm that parked itself in one location, dumping foot after foot of snow. By the time the final tally was counted this morning, as much as 8 feet had fallen over Buffalo New York. A record amount never before seen in so short a time span and yet so far ahead of winter.”

Source: robertscribbler.wordpress.com

Read the full article to see why flooding is expected early next week.