Category Archives: Climate Change

The Choice Before us is Urgent: Sans a Swift Switch to Renewables, Dangerous Climate Change May Be Imminent

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robertscribbler's avatarrobertscribbler

The world right now is facing some very serious challenges.

The first is that the globe will probably rocket well past peak CO2 levels of 405 parts per million by April and May of this year. This jump has been pushed along by a baseline massive human CO2 emission and assisted by a record ocean warming event (El Nino) in the Equatorial Pacific. Overall, this new yearly record will be more than 55 parts per million higher than peak ‘safe’ levels of 350 parts per million recommended by some of the world’s top climate scientists.

405 ppm the Keeling Curve

(Global CO2 levels will cross well above the dangerous 405 parts per million threshold during April and May of 2016. During recent years, record or near record carbon emissions have exaggerated rates of atmospheric greenhouse gas accumulation. But did the world see emissions reductions during 2014 and 2015 and will those reductions be sustained? Image…

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One Month Above 1.5 C — NASA Data Shows February Crossed Critical Threshold

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robertscribbler's avatarrobertscribbler

We had a number of preliminary indicators that February of 2016 was going to be ridiculously hot. And, according to new reports from NASA, those indicators appear to have born out.

In short, we’ve just experienced a month that was more than 1.5 C hotter than 1880s averages. It’s not a yearly average in this dangerous range — but likely the peak reading from a very intense El Nino combining with the growing base forcing of human climate change. That said, it’s a foretaste of what could very easily happen on a 5-15 year timescale in the annual measure if fossil fuel burning and related carbon emissions do not radically ramp downward.

February of 2015 was About 1.57 C Hotter Than 1880s Averages

According to NASA GISS, February of 2016 was the hottest February ever recorded by a long shot with global temperature departures hitting a never-before-seen above…

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Climate: Study sees global warming fingerprint on long-running drought in Mediterranean region

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Thanks to Bob Berwyn for more details on one of the regions discussed in the climate-emergency declaration (bit.ly/1R3dN6k).

Bob Berwyn's avatarSummit County Citizens Voice

Current regional dry spell appears to be the most severe in more than 900 years

Staff Report

The Mediterranean region may already be feeling the impacts of human-caused climate change, according to a new tree ring study that compared an ongoing drought in the region with historic climate conditions.

Based on the findings, NASA scientists concluded the current drought — spread across Cyprus, Israel, Jordan Lebanon, Palestine, Syria and Turkey — is the worst in at least 900 years. Nearly all climate models project that global warming will dry up the Mediterranean region.

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Global Climate Emergency declared by Scientists at Columbia University Earth Institute

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Global Climate Emergency

Climate-change projections published by scientists at the Columbia University Earth Institute have shifted from warnings to emergency alarms.  The scientists are ringing GarryRogersthe emergency bell because of the coming loss of human health and lives.  However, the real disaster lies with natural ecosystems. Earth’s webs of life constructed of interacting plants and animals will suffer far greater and more important loses than will human civilization.  For one thing, humans can emigrate (if their neighbors let them) from landscapes becoming uninhabitable.  Plants and most animals cannot.  (If you want a refresher course on climate change, this is an excellent review:  Global Warming Basics.)

In addition to the U. S. Southwest:

The tropics and the Middle East in summer are in danger of becoming practically uninhabitable by the end of the century if business-as-usual fossil fuel emissions continue, because wet bulb temperature could approach the level at which the human body is unable to cool itself under even well-ventilated outdoor conditions.[3] —James Hansen and Makiko Sato

The ecosystems of the tropics are the most diverse and complex.  Desertification there is an incomprehensible tragedy for the Earth.

I excerpted the following from:

Regional Climate Change and National Responsibilities

“Discussion:  We conclude that continued business-as-usual fossil fuel emissions will begin to make low latitudes inhospitable.  If accompanied by multi-meter sea level rise,[11] resulting forced migration and economic disruption could be devastating.

The overall message that climate science delivers to society, policymakers, and the public alike is this: we have a global emergency. . . . We argue that country-by-country goals, the approach of the 21st Conference of the Parties[13] cannot lead to rapid phasedown of fossil fuel emissions, as long as fossil fuels are allowed to be the cheapest energy.  It will be necessary to include a carbon fee that allows the external costs of fossil fuels to be incorporated in their price.  Border duties on products from countries without a carbon fee, would lead to most nations adopting a carbon fee.”–James Hansen and Makiko Sato.

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions

(a) Updates of Figure 5 in Hansen and Sato (2001) “Trends of measured climate forcing agents” (also in PDF) and (b)same quantities as in (a) but in linear scale (also in PDF.) [Last modified: 2015/08/07]

Updates of Figure 16 in Hansen (2003), “Can we defuse the global warming time bomb?” [Figure also in PDF. Last modified: 2015/08/08]

[Figure also in PDF. Last modified: 2015/08/08]Data source: Boden, T.A., G. Marland, and R.J. Andres. 2015. Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A. doi 10.3334/CDIAC/00001_V2015. Digital data are available at CDIAC web pages and used for 1751-2011. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015 data are used for extensions to 2014.

See More Figures.

GR:  For a broader discussion of the emergency, go to http://robertscribbler.com.

Biodiversity: Restoring Earth’s Balance (Climate Change News)

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Global survey will measure rate at which species are dying. Mining execs charged with homicide in Brazil. Peru fights back against Amazon oil contamination.  From: www.mintpressnews.com

BS

The Roof is On Fire — Looks like February of 2016 Was 1.5 to 1.7 C Above 1880s Averages

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Have all Republicans asked themselves if they really want global warming that destroys natural ecosystems and human civilization? Things you have to consider in this Robert Scribbler post.

robertscribbler's avatarrobertscribbler

Before we go on to explore this most recent and most extreme instance in a long string of record-shattering global temperatures, we should take a moment to credit our climate change denier ‘friends’ for what’s happening in the Earth System.

For decades now, a coalition of fossil fuel special interests, big money investors, related think tanks, and the vast majority of the republican party have fought stridently to prevent effective action to mitigate the worst effects of climate change. In their mad quest, they have attacked science, demonized leaders, gridlocked Congress, hobbled government, propped up failing fossil fuels, prevented or dismantled helpful regulation, turned the Supreme Court into a weapon against renewable energy solutions, and toppled industries that would have helped to reduce the damage.

Through these actions, they have been successful in preventing the necessary and rapid shift away from fossil fuel burning, halting a burgeoning American…

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Climate activists threaten to shut down world’s major coal sites

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“Climate activists will use direct action to try to shut down major fossil fuel sites across the world in May, including the UK’s largest opencast coal mine in south Wales.

“The dozen international sites facing civil disobedience from the Break Free 2016 campaign span the globe from the US to Australia and South Africa to Indonesia.

“The Ffos-y-fran opencast mine, near Merthyr Tydfil in Wales, is about halfway through extracting 11m tonnes of coal. Ellie Groves, from the Reclaim the Power network, said: “The only way we can stop catastrophic climate change is taking action to keep fossil fuels in the ground.”

“The local community have battled Ffos-­y-­fran for nearly a decade and now face the threat of a new mine next door at Nant Llesg,” said Groves. “Enough is enough. We need a ban on opencast coal mining across Wales, and the rest of the UK.”  From: www.theguardian.com

GR:  Direct action by citizens is necessary when business control over government becomes so strong it blocks rational rules and enforcement.  Help stop fossil-fuel mining and use, help block military actions and the international arms trade, divest in energy, financial, and chemical stocks.  Help your government do the right thing.  Take part in protests whenever you can!

REDD in the news: 22-28 February 2016

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REDD-Monitor’s weekly round up of the news on REDD, forests and climate. The links are organised by date (click on the title for the full article). REDD-Monitor’s news links on delicious.com are updated regularly.

Here’s the news item for 22 February 2016:

Airline Manufacturers Escape Threat of Big costs from New U.N. Climate Standards.  By Allison Lampert, Reuters, 22 February 2016

A flight test engineer holds an Airbus Group flag after the first flight of the Airbus A320neo (New Engine Option) in Colomiers near Toulouse, southwestern France, September 25, 2014. REUTERS/Regis Duvignau

A flight test engineer holds an Airbus Group flag after the first flight of the Airbus A320neo (New Engine Option) in Colomiers near Toulouse, southwestern France.  REUTERS/Regis Duvignau

After six years of negotiations over U.N. greenhouse gas regulations, the aerospace industry dodged the threat of spending billions of dollars to re-engineer airplanes. The industry got help from European and Russian negotiators, who successfully argued that the standards should not render newer, more efficient planes obsolete, according to three people familiar with the U.N. talks in Montreal this month. The latest planes from companies such as Boeing Co(BA.N) and Airbus Group SE(AIR.PA) – which cost tens of billions of dollars to develop – will meet the new emissions standards. European negotiators also led an effort to forge a compromise exempting older, fuel-guzzling aircraft from the standards until 2028 – five years longer than a competing proposal pushed by U.S. negotiators, according to U.S. and European sources with direct knowledge of the talks.  From: www.redd-monitor.org

GR:  I included one of the “round up” items because it is a good example of corporate unwillingness to make financial sacrifices to stop CO2 increases.  It’s the type of human behaivor that the pessimists say threatens nature and human survival.

Washington considers nation’s first carbon emissions tax

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SEATTLE (AP) — “Washington could become the first state in the nation to impose a direct tax on carbon emissions from fossil fuels such as coal, gasoline and natural gas.

“A ballot measure before the state Legislature would create a carbon tax of $25 per metric ton of fossil fuel emissions burned in Washington, while reducing taxes.

“Lawmakers have until the end of the session on March 10 to enact Initiative 732, offer an alternative proposal or automatically pass the carbon-tax measure to voters in November as written. It’s not clear whether lawmakers will approve an alternative by the end of the session.

“The grass-roots group Carbon Washington — which gathered more than 350,000 signatures to qualify the initiative — says a carbon tax is the best way to reduce emissions and tackle global warming. It says the tax encourages people and businesses to switch to cleaner energy by making fossil fuels more expensive.”  From: bigstory.ap.org

GR:  It might be possible for people to break fossil fuel’s deadly grip on our future.  Of course, the industry will spend huge sums on advertising and publicity to confuse voters and block a tax.  While we have to be hopeful about the outcome in Washington, we can’t wait to see what’s going to happen.  The matter is so urgent that petition drives need to open up in all states.