Here is a short explanation of the title. It breaks down the metaphor used in the text to clarify that “Initiation” refers to a rite of passage rather than a beginning.
The title reframes the collapse of industrial civilization not as a meaningless end, but as a necessary rite of passage for humanity. It argues that humans are behaving as adolescents: obsessed with immediate gratification, a false sense of invincibility, and growth, the accumulation of material wealth.
Therefore, the “Initiation” refers to the painful evolutionary bottleneck we have entered. Just as a tribal initiation forces a child to endure an ordeal to become an adult, the climate and biosphere crises are the “initiatory ordeals” required to strip humanity of its illusions.
The goal of our initiation is a shift in consciousness: moving us from the role of planetary conqueror to that of a mature, responsible member of the biosphere. We are not dying; we are being forced to grow up.
In short: The biosphere collapse is the harsh lesson (the Initiation) required to transform humanity from reckless adolescence into mature sapience.
Our planet’s life support systems are failing, and we cannot fully restore what is being lost. But hope is not gone. We can focus on protecting refugia: special places that resist environmental damage and can act as lifeboats for biodiversity. Think of them as safe harbors—pockets of stability for plants and animals facing fire, heat, or drought. The goal of this project is to create a practical Refugia Playbook. This guide will help local communities identify, protect, and manage these vital areas in their own backyards. It is a hands-on strategy for building ecological resilience from the ground up, giving nature—and us—a fighting chance for recovery. Learn more about how we plan to develop this crucial tool.
Our planet’s life-support system is in trouble. For centuries, we have treated the biosphere as an infinite resource. We have used its soils, forests, and waters. We have filled its air and oceans with waste. Now, the bill is coming due.
The signs are all around us. We have pushed the Earth beyond its safe operating limits (Richardson et al. 2023). The systems that kept our climate stable for millennia are beginning to break down. This is not a distant problem for future generations. It is a present reality. The window for simple fixes has closed.
My new book, Biosphere Collapse: Causes and Solutions, confronts this reality directly. It argues that we must shift our focus from preserving and restoring the past to preserving a future. The book moves beyond describing the problem. It offers a clear, structured framework for the necessary transformation of our civilization.
The framework organizes the required changes into four levels of increasing difficulty. It starts with straightforward technical solutions, like managing fisheries. It moves to restructuring entire economic sectors, like energy and agriculture. It then addresses systemic drivers like urbanization. Finally, it tackles the deepest challenge: shifting our core beliefs about progress and growth.
The book makes a pragmatic case for preparation. Profound change is difficult in times of comfort. It often takes a crisis to create the political will for action. As climate-related disasters become more common, they will create windows of opportunity. Biosphere Collapse advocates developing detailed blueprints that communities, towns, and nations can have ready to implement when those windows open.
This is a book about facing hard truths. But it is also a book about agency and hope. It outlines a path forward, one that combines technical knowledge, political strategy, and a deeper ethical relationship with the living world.
To learn more about this essential framework, please read the full executive summary on our new website page.
Bibliography
Richardson, K., et al. 2023. Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries. Science Advances 9: eadh2458.
Here is a short explanation of the title. It breaks down the metaphor used in the text to clarify that “Initiation” refers to a rite of passage rather than a beginning. The title reframes the collapse of industrial civilization not as a meaningless end, but as a necessary rite of passage for humanity. It argues…
I am pleased to announce the release of my new novel, The Long Fire Season. For years, I have written about the technical realities of biosphere collapse and the necessity of adaptation. Now, I am exploring those themes through the most powerful lens available to us: the human heart. Love in the Time of Nature’s…
We stand at the terminal edge of the Holocene. By now, those of us paying attention to the data know that the era of “green growth” and technological salvation is a delusion. We are beginning to understand what systems theorist Nate Hagens calls “The Great Simplification”—the inevitable thermodynamic correction that occurs as our civilization’s energy…
The fundamental question of whether humanity’s environmental solutions will overtake and halt its environmental destruction in time to preserve human civilization is the subject of intense scientific debate. An analysis of peer-reviewed research on climate change and its effects on human civilization suggests that while positive developments in technology and policy may prevent the absolute worst-case warming scenarios, they are unlikely to be deployed fast enough to avoid irreversible damage to key global ecosystems. The “intersection” will occur, but after some critical tipping points have been crossed.
I approached this issue in: “Adapting to Worst-Case Climate Change” and “Silent Earth, Adaptations for Life in a Devastated biosphere.” This blog post is a more balanced review of optimism due to positive developments and pessimism due to negative impacts. Last week I added Kindle versions of my books. Enrolled in Amazon’s Free Book promotion, they are free starting today with “Adapting. . . .”
The Acceleration of Solutions: A Techno-Economic Revolution
The case for optimism rests on the exponential growth of clean technologies, driven by powerful economic feedback loops.
Economic Tipping Points: The most significant positive trend is that renewable energy sources are now, in many parts of the world, the cheapest form of new electricity generation available. This has created a powerful economic momentum for decarbonization that is less dependent on political will. A study by Way et al. (2022) in the journal Joule found that a rapid transition to clean energy is likely to result in trillions of dollars in net savings globally compared to a fossil-fuel-based system.
Exponential Growth & S-Curves: The deployment of key technologies like solar, wind, and batteries is not linear but follows an exponential adoption “S-curve”. BloombergNEF (2023) data shows that solar and wind now account for most new power-generating capacity added globally each year. Similarly, global EV sales have doubled every two years, a trend that, if sustained, could lead to a near-total transition away from internal combustion engines for new car sales by the early 2030s.
Policy as an Accelerator: While political will is fickle, major policy actions can create long-term industrial momentum. The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the E.U.’s Green Deal are not just climate policies, but massive industrial strategies designed to onshore clean energy manufacturing and secure a competitive advantage. These initiatives will accelerate decarbonization pathways in the world’s largest economies, though this will be retarded by the U. S. counter moves in 2025.
The Acceleration of Impacts: The Unyielding Physics of the Earth System
The case for pessimism is grounded in the physical realities of the Earth system, which possesses immense inertia and potential for non-linear dynamics.
Climate System Inertia and “Locked-In” Warming: The central challenge is the inertia of the climate system. Even if global emissions were to cease today, the planet would continue to warm because of past emissions and the thermal inertia of the oceans. This has been referred to as “warming in the pipeline” (Hansen et al. 2023). A significant amount of future sea-level rise and ecosystem injury is already “locked in,” regardless of our current actions.
Irreversible Tipping Points: The greatest risk is that this locked-in warming will push critical Earth systems past irreversible tipping points. A landmark 2022 study in Science by Armstrong McKay et al. found that several key tipping points, including the collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets and the abrupt thaw of permafrost, could be triggered even between 1.5°C and 2°C of warming—thresholds we are on track to cross. The recent die-off of vast areas of coral reefs serves as a stark example of a major ecosystem already crossing this threshold.
Cascading Risks and Synchronous Failures: These tipping points are not independent. The collapse of one system can increase the risk of another failing, creating a “tipping cascade” (Kemp et al. 2022). For example, losing Arctic sea ice reduces albedo and accelerates regional warming, which hastens the thaw of permafrost. Recent research highlights the growing risk of “synchronous failure,” where climate-related shocks trigger simultaneous crises in multiple interconnected systems, including global food supply chains and financial markets. In their exhaustive study of tipping points, Vasilis Dakos and colleagues concluded that the vast amount of remote sensing and other Earth systems data are bringing us closer to the ability to anticipate tipping points. At present, “Early warnings can tell us that “something” important may be about to happen, but they do not tell us what precisely that “something” may be and when exactly it will happen” (. . . , Dakos et al. 2024).
The Verdict: An Intersection After Irreparable Damage
When comparing these two accelerating trends, the scientific literature points to a deeply unsettling conclusion. The positive socio-economic trends of the clean energy transition are powerful, but they are unlikely to move quickly enough to prevent the biophysical trendlines of climate impact from crossing critical, irreversible thresholds. The most likely outcome is a future where humanity successfully reduces the impacts of its farms and cities and decarbonizes its energy and transportation systems, but only after locking in the collapse of several major ecosystems. We will prevent the 4-5°C “runaway greenhouse” scenario, but we will not prevent the loss of all coral reefs and mountain glaciers, loss of some major ice sheets, and significant, permanent loss of significant portions of the biosphere. The “intersection” will not be a moment of salvation, but a point at which we can adapt to a world that has been irreparably damaged. If humanity’s effort to survive is sufficient, civilization will survive, but in a suppressed state that will persist while the earth cools and cleans itself and Earth’s biosphere heals.
Armstrong McKay, D. I., et al. (2022). “Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points.” Science, 377(6611), eabn7950.
BloombergNEF. (2023). New Energy Outlook 2023. Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Claes, D. H., & Pineda, L. G. (2023). “The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the new logic of climate and energy policy.” Energy Strategy Reviews, 50, 101258.
Dakos, V. et al. (2024). Tipping point detection and early warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems. Earth System Dynamics 15: 1117-1135.
Hansen, J., et al. (2023). “Global warming in the pipeline.” Oxford Open Climate Change, 3(1), kgad008.
Homer-Dixon, T., et al. (2015). “Synchronous failure: The emerging causal architecture of global crisis.” Ecology and Society, 20(3).
Hughes, T. P., et al. (2018). “Global warming transforms coral reef assemblages.” Nature, 556(7702), 492-496.
IEA. (2023). World Energy Outlook 2023. International Energy Agency.
IPCC. (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
“Silent Earth” has received a five-star “must read🏆” review on Reedsy. Blending scientific depth and practical foresight, this book is both a wake-up call and a guide for navigating environmental collapse.
Synopsis
Silent Earth is a technical reference for civil engineers, land-use and urban planners, and city administrators. It covers a broad range of topics and should serve as a springboard for specialists wishing to learn more about adapting to climate change and biosphere decline.
As the Earth’s living systems deteriorate at an unprecedented rate, human societies face the urgent challenge of adapting to an increasingly unstable environment. Physical Geographer Garry Rogers offers a clear-eyed examination of our options, arguing that while complete restoration of the biosphere is no longer feasible, strategic adaptation remains possible. Drawing on extensive research, Rogers outlines practical approaches for communities to maintain essential functions as ecosystem services decline. While large-scale adaptation efforts face significant barriers, this groundbreaking work shows how planners and administrators can implement effective strategies to enhance resilience in a transforming world. Essential reading for navigating our environmental future. Ideal for policymakers, scholars, environmentalists, and engaged citizens, Silent Earth challenges readers to envision a future where, even amidst biosphere decline, adaptation and innovation can pave the way for survival.
Garry Rogers’ Silent Earth: Adaptations for Life in a Devastated Biosphere explores the escalating degradation of Earth’s biosphere, offering strategies for human adaptation. It points to the realistic inevitability of this need to adjust, as humanity is facing the consequences of irreversible damage already done. Rogers goes beyond the simple dialogue of climate change, expanding and examining the interconnected impact of the entire biosphere, from current impacts such loss of biodiversity to coral reef bleaching.
In Section IV, Rogers draws upon research to emphasize that as soon as 2030 we are on the brink, and that we urgently need to act not only to prevent further destruction, but also to prepare for survival:
The cumulative and synergistic effects of human impacts are pushing ecosystems closer to tipping points. Feedback loops and shifting ecosystem boundaries are accelerating environmental change, while these effects interact in complex ways, amplifying their individual impacts. As we approach 2030, addressing these interconnected challenges will require an integrated approach to conservation and climate action to mitigate the far-reaching impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem stability.
The strength of Silent Earth lies in Section V, which presents a blueprint for adaptation. Rogers proposes various strategies from water management to cultural and governance reforms. His emphasis on grassroots action and local resilience is both pragmatic and empowering, especially given his acknowledgment of the political and societal inertia that is likely to hinder adaptation on a wider scale.
Silent Earth is thoroughly researched, intellectually stimulating, and well-cited. Rogers excels in synthesizing vast amounts of ecological, social, and technological data into a cohesive narrative.
Silent Earth is a valuable resource for those interested in interdisciplinary approaches to global challenges. It’s an important and thought-provoking read for anyone seeking to understand and address the complex realities of ecological decline.
The United Nations has declared that May 22 is Biodiversity Day. The goal this year is to publicize biodiversity. After studying the text of the UN Convention on Biodiversity, I believe that the UN is doing little or nothing for biodiversity. I have studied plants and animals for many years. What I’ve seen, and what others report, is that all of nature is in steep decline. Humans are the cause. I fear that people might be led to believe that the United Nations is taking effective action to protect biodiversity. It is not.
The theme of the UN Convention on Biodiversity is sustainable development. It’s text has lofty goals with vague strategies for their attainment. The text makes clear the Convention’s desire for acceptance by even the most growth oriented government. Each Article begins with phrases such as: “Each Contracting Party shall, in accordance with its particular conditions and capabilities. . . .” and this: “Each Contracting Party shall, as far as possible and as appropriate. . . .” Since human desires are the conditions that define what is appropriate, the phrases prohibit no “contractor” from full-bore growth and development if they say that these are needed to provide jobs and improved standards of living.
This is the UN’s definition of the Convention:
Signed by 150 government leaders at the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, the Convention on Biological Diversity is dedicated to promoting sustainable development. Conceived as a practical tool for translating the principles of Agenda 21 into reality, the Convention recognizes that biological diversity is about more than plants, animals and micro organisms and their ecosystems – it is about people and our need for food security, medicines, fresh air and water, shelter, and a clean and healthy environment in which to live (United Nations).
Biodiversity is definitely not about the needs of only one species. It is a general term that gives equal importance to all species. By placing humans ahead of all other species, the Convention’s definition replaces biological validity with the human bias that is destroying the Earth.
This year’s meeting focus is on promoting biodiversity. The meetings never do much more than report on small achievements. They serve as an opportunity to search for funding for their development-friendly activities and they let governments reward their environmental managers with a two-week vacation in an international resort.
Homo sapiens’ unrelenting rape of the Earth and the rapid decline of biodiversity is taking us toward the greatest mass extinction of all time. No one has found an effective means to stop this. In 1992, the United Nations decided to formalize their support for continued devastation by sugar-coating human impacts with the term “sustainable.” A genuine Biodiversity Day would focus on curtailing human:
Population growth
Habitat destruction
Material aspirations
Over and over, our leading biologists call for emergency responses to our impacts on the Earth. This blog has more than a thousand well-reasoned warnings and suggestions related to biodiversity. However, biodiversity decline continues. What do we do? Even as our impacts grow beyond the hope of remediation, our environmental managers lay by the pool sipping rum punch, eying the pretty young servers, and discussing funding proposals and plans for more meetings.
What can we do for biodiversity?
I intend to look for ways to oppose development, call for population control, live a simpler life, and learn more about plants and animals.
The excellent article introduced below is about nature conservation from the human viewpoint. The argument is that the current mass extinction of wild plants and animals has harmful consequences for the future of the human species. It most certainly has, but the author’s desire to inform his audience misses its target because it gives a biased view of the problem. The article does not consider the rights of other species. This “homocentric” view of nature assumes that disappearance of other creatures is only important if it endangers humans.
Aldo Leopold and other conservationists realized that this viewpoint is unsustainable. Unless we accept the equality of all Earth’s species, including our own, our conservation efforts will always fail. With its runaway enthusiasm for untested proposals, our species will take chances with the lives of other species. Experiments aimed only at benefiting our species, experiments that do not respect the rights of other species, experiments that will sometimes have unforeseen consequences, will gradually nibble away at nature until our ecosystems collapse and wash into the sea (carrying us with it).
Unless we begin to respect the rights of all species, we will exert constant damage on the Earth and ourselves.
Our real Sarah Palin nightmare: We debate sideshows and phony problems — while this very real threat looms undiscussed
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, right, endorses Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump during a rally at the Iowa State University, Tuesday, Jan. 19, 2016, in Ames, Iowa. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer)
“It’s an amazing fact that the contemporary world is marked by a growing number of problems that are genuinely global in scope. Some of these problems even have existential implications for the survival of human civilization — yet instead we spend too much time discussing smaller threats, including North Korea, ISIS, Oregon militias and even Sarah Palin. One such problem is anthropogenic climate change — a catastrophe whose effects are anticipated to be “severe,” “pervasive” and “irreversible.”
“But climate change isn’t the only problem of this sort. In fact, for many who spend their lives studying environmental issues, it can be frustrating to see climate change — a highly contentious issue among non-experts, despite a scientific consensus about its reality and causes — dominate the public discussion. The fact is that biodiversity loss constitutes an equally worrisome (albeit related) threat to the future of humanity.
“Consider some cold hard facts. According to the 3rd Global Biodiversity Report (GBO-3), the total population of vertebrates — a broad category that includes mammals, birds, reptiles, sharks, rays and amphibians — living within the tropics declined by a shocking 59% from 1970 to 2006. Take a moment to let this sink in. In only 36 years, more than half of the vertebrate population between the Tropic of Capricorn and the Tropic of Cancer disappeared.”— Read More: Phil Torres, Salon.
“To find out [how meat consumption impacted biodiversity], Brian Machovina and his colleagues looked at studies that identified the world’s biodiversity hotspots—those areas that contain the highest percentage of endemic plant and animal species. Most are located in tropical nations. Then, the researchers picked out countries that are most likely to expand their industrial livestock operations, and determined where and how much land will be lost to grazing and growing crops to feed livestock. Using data from the Food and Agriculture Organization and other studies about the production of cattle, pigs, and chickens in these countries from 1985 to 2013 and the amount of land the livestock required, they extrapolated the likely future expansion of agricultural lands. Finally, they created maps of overlap.
“Many of the places expected to see the greatest shift in land use from forest to livestock are in 15 “megadiverse” countries, which harbor the largest number of species, Machovina says. “By 2050, given current trends, these countries will likely increase the lands used for livestock production by 30% to 50%”—some 3,000,000 square kilometers—the researchers estimate.
“The habitat loss is so great that it will cause more extinctions than any other factor, the study notes, particularly when coupled with other deleterious effects of livestock production, including climate change and pollution. “These changes will have major, negative impacts on biodiversity,” Machovina says. “Many, many species will be lost.” Sourced through Scoop.it from: news.sciencemag.org
GR: Eventually all human “eaters” speed extinction. Soybeans, wheat, and cabbages all require land to grow. As the number of hungry humans grows, the amount of farmed land will grow. If the coming massive storms do not reverse our growth, the loss of nature will.
Conservationists say India is not doing enough to protect tigers. Six months after India boasted that its tiger population was growing fast, conservationists on Wednesday said 41 big… Sourced through Scoop.it from: www.theguardian.com
GR: The prospects for wild tigers in India are not good. The human population is the only one that is growing. India was once the nation that was most concerned with curbing human population growth. But during the period from 1960 to today, the country’s population grew from 400 million to over one billion. What happened? Were the programs ineffective, or did they not receive enough support?
GarryRogers Nature Conservation 