Asking for More: Additional Carbon Cuts Please

GR: Moving from theoretical to practical, an article in Nature reports on the use of observed global warming to choose the best models for predicting future global warming. Future warming is normally estimated by combining several models. In the new research, the scientists found that the best models actually predict a warmer future than the combined models did. National commitments to reduce emissions have to increase.

Governments are curbing emissions, but not fast enough for 2C goal (Pic: Flickr/kris krug)

“Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget”

Abstract:  “Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth’s top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (−1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.” –Brown and Caldeira.

Forests for the future: Kenya’s carbon credit scheme

“When 61-year old Mercy Joshua was young, the vast forests of southeastern Kenya teemed with wildlife, but decades of unchecked deforestation by locals have devastated the land. She watched forests dwindle and rivers dry up across her homeland of Kasigau—a semi-arid savanna grassland dotted with shrubs, woodland and small rugged hills—as people cut down the trees to scratch a living by selling them for firewood. But now, after decades of degradation, a local project has found a way to preserve the forests and support the community by getting international companies to pay to plant trees.”

“We were losing everything, but thanks to the project we have learnt even how to live with the wild animals,” Joshua, a mother of four, told AFP.

“These days, we don’t cut down trees… they are our friends,” she added.

“The project has breathed new life into Kasigau, a 500,000 acre (200,000 hectare) dryland forest 330 kilometres (205 miles) southeast of the capital Nairobi that connects the two halves of Kenya’s renowned Tsavo national park.

“She watched forests dwindle and rivers dry up across her homeland of Kasigau—a semi-arid savanna grassland dotted with shrubs, woodland and small rugged hills—as people cut down the trees to scratch a living by selling them for firewood.

“But now, after decades of degradation, a local project has found a way to preserve the forests and support the community by getting international companies to pay to plant trees.

“We were losing everything, but thanks to the project we have learnt even how to live with the wild animals,” Joshua, a mother of four, told AFP.

“These days, we don’t cut down trees… they are our friends,” she added.

“The project has breathed new life into Kasigau, a 500,000 acre (200,000 hectare) dryland forest 330 kilometres (205 miles) southeast of the capital Nairobi that connects the two halves of Kenya’s renowned Tsavo national park.

“Founded in 2009, it is part of a UN-backed carbon credit scheme aimed at stopping 54 million tonnes of carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere over the next 30 years, equivalent to 1.2 million tonnes a year.”

Continue Reading: phys.org

GR:  These programs can have short-term benefits.  But nothing is sustainable when population continues to grow.

Patricia Randolph’s Madravenspeak: Doomsday climate scenario no longer far-fetched

MADRAVENSPEAK “Consider this. What if all life on earth could go extinct because of man-made climate change?” — “Last Hours” documentary.

There is little, these days, that brings state power in line

with the best interests of the public or the planet. Those in power devour Koch money for breakfast and deliver destruction of the planet all day long.  Concentrated corporate and special-interest power monetize what was sacred, and have taken over governments, including our own, cannibalizing the planet to exhaustion. This trajectory is accelerating such that this may be the last century of life on this planet. Each of the five former known extinctions eradicated more than half of life on earth. Several of them involved global warming.

Everyone should watch Thom Hartmann’s short “Last Hours, a preamble to a documentary in the works, covering the projections of how climate change will likely play out. Rather than a meteorite, our greatest threat is “under ground, under water, under the ice, where trillions of tons of carbon lie in wait in the form of frozen methane.”

Read more at: wiwildlifeethic.org

GR:  The “Urgent Care prescription” at the end is worth reading and discussing.