“The Southwest and central Plains will experience a dry weather shift 35 years from now, a NASA, Cornell and Columbia study said” (Source: www.washingtonpost.com).
GR: The interactive map is interesting.
Tag Archives: drought
Sao Paulo’s Reservoirs are Drying Out When they Should Be Filling Up
“It’s the rainy season for Brazil. But, thus far, adequate rains have not come. A persistent high pressure system has lingered over Brazil. A blocking high of the kind that has now become so common with global temperatures spiking to more than +0.8 C above 1880s averages — thickening heat domes and granting these powerful weather systems an ever greater inertia. A set of circumstances that has set off a plethora of very severe droughts ranging the globe since the early 2000s” Source: robertscribbler.wordpress.com.
GR: The drought is impacting the great Amazon rainforest as well. Coupled with deforestation by logging and grazing interests, the drought will have a massive influence on climate.
US Wet Areas to Get Wetter And Dry Areas To Get Drier
Click to view larger image.
GR: These results confirm earlier predictions. The projected changes are milder if we cut greenhouse gas emissions now, but they still occur. Interesting that while drought continues in the Southwest, the Arizona monsoon will intensify.
“The twenty-first century may bring the United States more of the weather it’s already got, whether wet or dry. The U.S. National Climate Assessment, issued in May 2014, examined multiple model projections of seasonal precipitation over the rest of this century. In general, precipitation is projected to increase in the northernmost parts of the country, and decrease in the southwestern United States.
“These maps show projected seasonal precipitation changes for the final decades of this century (2071-2099) compared to the end of the last century (1970-1999) depending on two possible scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions. One scenario assumes that greenhouse gas emissions peak sometime between 2010 and 2020 and rapidly decline afterwards. The other scenario assumes that greenhouse gas emissions continue increasing throughout the 21st century.”
Water costs up 1,000% where half of US fruits, vegetables and nuts grow
Drought and Human Demand Wiping Out Natural Water Resources
GR: The rising cost of vegetables and the crops fed to livestock may alter the diets of the expanded mass of poor people in the US. The real impact, however, is the drying of springs and ponds used by wildlife. Drought and human competition for water will shove many species farther toward extinction.
Rising Costs for Urbanites
NaturalNews: “It is not as if there aren’t any economic factors influencing the price of groceries these days. Transportation alone, thanks to skyrocketing fuel prices, has lifted the cost of everything we buy at the grocery store. Now, one of the worst droughts in U.S. history is making the one thing absolutely vital for food production — an ample water supply — more expensive as well, and that, ultimately, will translate into even higher prices at the market.
“To set the stage, back in February the U.S. Bureau or Reclamation released its first outlook of the year, in which the agency found insufficient water stocks in California to release to farmers for irrigation. That was the first time in the 54-year history of the State Water Project that had happened.
“If it’s not there, it’s just not there,” said Water Authority Executive Director Steve Chedester, who noted that it would be tough finding water in the coming year or more. Farmers were to be hardest hit, the official added, stating, “They’re all on pins and needles trying to figure out how they’re going to get through this.”
“One way to deal with the drought is for farmers to plant fewer fields, which would mean that early on there would be fewer crops; in the law of supply and demand, when supply is reduced but demand remains high, prices rise.”
Read more at NaturalNews.
North American waterfowl are newest casualty of California’s drought – The Sacramento Bee
“California wildlife officials are asking the public to help watch for sick waterfowl that may be suffering because of the drought. Avian botulism is more likely to spread when birds cluster in small pockets of water. Already, hundreds of dead birds have been reported at three locations across the state, including the canal that bisects Sacramento’s Pocket neighborhood.
“Add another casualty to California’s prolonged and punishing drought: Wildlife officials warned this week that dry conditions in the state’s Central Valley could have a devastating effect on North American waterfowl.
“The Central Valley is recognized as the most important resting and wintering ground on the Pacific Flyway, a global migratory path for millions of ducks, geese and other birds. About 5 million waterfowl spend the winter on state and federal wildlife refuge areas and flooded rice fields in the Central Valley each winter.
“This year, the worst drought in a generation means those Central Valley habitats have been dramatically reduced in size. Wildlife refuges have had their state and federal water supplies cut by 25 percent. Rice acreage has been reduced by a similar amount as farmers also have endured water cutbacks.
“As a result, millions of migrating birds will be crowded into less habitat, significantly increasing the odds of botulism outbreaks, which spread rapidly and can kill thousands of birds in a matter of days. The problem is not limited to rural areas but can affect waterfowl drawn to urban water bodies as well. Officials also are concerned the drought could cause food shortages.
“Already, at least 1,700 waterfowl have died at Tule Lake National Wildlife Refuge near the….”
Source: www.sacbee.com
Exceptional Drought Blankets 58 Percent of California
For California, the punishment just won’t stop. Human-caused warming and a climate change induced blocking pattern have withered California under record drought conditions for the better part of three years.
Previous week’s values of 36 percent exceptional drought coverage rocketed to 58 percent in just one week. Exceptional drought is the highest drought category for the US Drought Monitor, representing the most extreme conditions in the measure. So most of the state is now sweltering under the nation’s worst drought category with the remainder covered by extreme and severe drought:
“(US Drought Monitor map of California showing 58 percent of the state covered in exceptional drought [brick red], 23 percent covered in extreme drought [red], and the rest covered in severe drought [orange]. California is now entering its fourth month of 100% drought coverage after more than three years of abnormally dry conditions.)
“One hundred percent drought coverage with worsening conditions has been the prevailing pattern ever since May when drought first surged to blanket the entire state. Since that time, conditions have been steadily worsening with agricultural regions drying out, farmers, communities and industries forced to further deplete limited ground water supplies, and with reservoirs dropping despite best efforts by federal and state officials to conserve.
More at: robertscribbler.wordpress.com
GR: Check out the long-range forecasts included in the post.
Extreme to Exceptional Drought Now Covers Over 80 Percent of California
It’s no longer a question of 100% drought coverage for the stricken state of California. That barrier was crossed months ago. Today, it’s how severe that drought coverage has become. And in a state…
Source: robertscribbler.wordpress.com
Excellent article.
Climate Model Shows Australia’s Rainfall Decline Due To Human-Caused Climate Change
Australian Drought Result of Anthropogenic Climate Disruption (ACD)
Source: NOAA Research
“NOAA scientists have developed a new high-resolution climate model that shows southwestern Australia’s long-term decline in fall and winter rainfall is caused by increases in man-made greenhouse gas emissions and ozone depletion, according to research published today in Nature Geoscience.
Australian Drought ACD
“This new high-resolution climate model is able to simulate regional-scale precipitation with considerably improved accuracy compared to previous generation models,” said Tom Delworth, a research scientist at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J., who helped develop the new model and is co-author of the paper. “This model is a major step forward in our effort to improve the prediction of regional climate change, particularly involving water resources.”
“NOAA researchers conducted several climate simulations using this global climate model to study long-term changes in rainfall in various regions across the globe. One of the most striking signals of change emerged over Australia, where a long-term decline in fall and winter rainfall has been observed over parts of southern Australia. Simulating natural and human-caused climate drivers, scientists showed that the decline in rainfall is primarily a response to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases as well as a thinning of the ozone caused by human-caused aerosol emissions. Several natural causes were tested with the model, including volcano eruptions and changes in the sun’s radiation. But none of these natural climate drivers reproduced the long-term observed drying, indicating this trend is due to human activity.
“Southern Australia’s decline in rainfall began around 1970 and has increased over the last four decades. The model projects a continued decline in winter rainfall throughout the rest of the 21st century, with significant implications for regional water resources. The drying is most severe over southwest Australia where the model forecasts a 40 percent decline in average rainfall by the late 21st century.
“Predicting potential future changes in water resources, including drought, are an immense societal challenge,” said Delworth. “This new climate model will help us more accurately and quickly provide resource planners with environmental intelligence at the regional level. The study of Australian drought helps to validate this new model, and thus builds confidence in this model for ongoing studies of North American drought.”
The new paper, Regional rainfall decline in Australia attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and ozone levels, is available online.”
To read a Research Highlight on the paper, please go to NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory website:
Deer Decline in Western U. S. as Drought Continues
Deer in Arizona
Mule Deer Mother and Daughter at Coldwater Farm (Garry Rogers April, 2014)
The Arizona deer “harvest” is declining as the drought deepens. Though the Arizona Game and Fish Department now places no limits on the number of deer hunting licenses sold, the number of deer that hunters kill is shrinking as the deer population shrinks.
Last year, wildlife managers warned that deer would start showing up in towns where there are irrigated lawns and gardens. That certainly was true for Coldwater Farm where the first repeated deer visit occurred and a fawn was born. More deer are coming to the Farm this year, and we are expecting more births.
The deer are coming for water and to eat our flowers, vegetables, and weeds. We are delighted, and would rather see deer than tomatoes. If necessary, we can fence our garden. There are two problems: 1) we do not want to spoil the deer ability to live in the forest when the drought fades (if it does). 2) Some of our neighbors prefer tomatoes over deer and may call Animal Control (Wildlife Services?) to remove the deer.
Problem 1) is insignificant. Because of local geology, the river has carried surface water through the site of Coldwater Farm for tens of thousands of years. Deer have probably come for the water and riparian vegetation many times in the past and returned to the chaparral and forest when rains returned.
Problem 2) is more significant. Already two neighbors report “shooing” deer from their garden. Climate forecasts predict that our drought will continue for many years. Deer could join the smaller mammals to become a permanent part of our small town biosphere. How long before Humans demand that the deer are removed? What will I have to do to protect their right to water and food?
Deer in Colorado
The following by Joshua Rhett Miller Published July 15, 2014 FoxNews.com
“The number of deer in Colorado and other parts of the West is rapidly declining, including a 36 percent drop among mule deer in the Centennial State from 2005 through last year, and a reported drop of at least 10 percent throughout the region.
“Brutal winters followed by extremely dry summers, loss of habitat due to commercial and residential development and predators like coyotes and mountain lions are factors in the decline, Matt Robbins, spokesman for Colorado Parks and Wildlife, told FoxNews.com.
“It’s a culmination of things,” Robbins said. “Weather has absolutely been a factor; we’ve had very harsh winters and then very dry summers, and we’re always very conscious of chronic wasting disease, loss of habitat, highway mortalities, predators and oil and gas development.”
GarryRogers Nature Conservation 